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Are crisis-induced devaluations contractionary?

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  • Ramkishen S. Rajan
  • Chung-Hua Shen

Abstract

Why are some currency crises followed by economic contractions while others are not? This paper is an attempt at answering this query. In particular, we investigate two closely related questions. First, we explore whether there is a difference in the output effects of a devaluation during normal periods versus crises ones; after all, during noncrisis periods, real exchange devaluation is seen as an important policy option for promoting exports and output growth. Yet, the literature has not made a distinction between crisis and noncrisis periods. To preview the main conclusion, we find that the contractionary effects tend to exist only during the crisis period. Building on this, we go one to explore the factors that cause a crisis-induced devaluation to be contractionary.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramkishen S. Rajan & Chung-Hua Shen, 2002. "Are crisis-induced devaluations contractionary?," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 2002-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpb:2002-06
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    Cited by:

    1. Siregar, Reza & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2004. "Impact of exchange rate volatility on Indonesia's trade performance in the 1990s," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 218-240, June.
    2. Graham Bird & Ramkishen Rajan, 2003. "Too Much of a Good Thing? The Adequacy of International Reserves in the Aftermath of Crises," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(6), pages 873-891, June.
    3. Chan, Tze-Haw, 2014. "Trade Balance, Foreign Exchange and Macroeconomic Impacts: An Empirical Assessment for China and Malaysia," MPRA Paper 59539, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Aug 2014.
    4. Artatrana Ratha, 2010. "Does Devaluation work for India?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(1), pages 247-264.
    5. Tony Cavoli & Ramkishen Rajan, 2003. "Designing Appropriate Exchange Rate Regimes for East Asia: Inflation Targeting and Monetary Policy Rules," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2003-09, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    6. Alvaro Aguirre & César Calderón, 2005. "Financial Frictions and Real Devaluations," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 318, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Chan, Tze-Haw & Hooy, Chee-Wooi, 2010. "China-Malaysia’s Trading and Exchange Rate: Complementary or Conflicting Features?," MPRA Paper 25546, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Chan, Tze-Haw & Hooy, Chee-Wooi, 2011. "China-Malaysia’s long run trading and exchange rate: complementary or conflicting?," MPRA Paper 33585, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Rajan, Ramkishen S. & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2006. "Why Are Crisis-Induced Devaluations Contractionary? Exploring Alternative Hypotheses," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 21, pages 526-550.
    10. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ali Kutan, 2008. "Are devaluations contractionary in emerging economies of Eastern Europe?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 61-74, March.
    11. Hooy, Chee-Wooi & Chan, Tze-Haw, 2008. "Examining Exchange Rates Exposure, J-Curve and the Marshall-Lerner Condition for High Frequency Trade Series between China and Malaysia," MPRA Paper 10916, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Oct 2008.
    12. Graham Bird & Ramkishen Rajan, 2002. "The Evolving Asian Financial Architecture," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2002-03, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    13. Muhammad Shahbaz & Faridul Islam & Naveed Aamir, 2012. "Is devaluation contractionary? Empirical evidence for Pakistan," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 299-316, November.

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