IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedfap/94-16.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Optimal policy with limited commitment

Author

Listed:
  • Kenneth Kasa

Abstract

This paper uses Whiteman's(1986) frequency-domain optimization methodology to parameterize the precommitment period in a standard rational expectations policy design model. This allows researchers to adopt an empirical approach to the time consistency issue. That is, the operative commitment horizon in a given policy setting can be estimated along with the other parameters characterizing the preferences and constraints of the agents in the model. It is shown that the commitment horizon can be estimated by running (restricted) regressions of the policymaker's instrument variable on past values of its target variable. ; Parameterizing the commitment horizon also delivers a mapping between welfare (or the value of the policymaker's objective function) and the length of the commitment horizon. The paper shows that the rate of convergence to the perfect precommitment value can be either quite slow or quite rapid, suggesting that the severity of the time consistency constraint can be sensitive to variation in the assumed commitment horizon. ; Finally, the results are applied to U.S. and German monetary policy during the post-Bretton Woods era. Assuming the monetary authority attempts to stabilize inflation using a Federal Funds like interest rate as an instrument, the results point to a one-month ahead commitment horizon for the U.S. Federal Reserve, and to a twelve-month ahead commitment horizon for the German Bundesbank. However, these horizons are estimated very imprecisely.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth Kasa, 1994. "Optimal policy with limited commitment," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 94-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfap:94-16
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1978. "On the Time Consistency of Optimal Policy in a Monetary Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1411-1428, November.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1980. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 7-46, May.
    3. Roberto Chang, 1996. "Credible monetary policy with long-lived agents: recursive approaches," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 96-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    4. Abreu, Dilip & Pearce, David & Stacchetti, Ennio, 1986. "Optimal cartel equilibria with imperfect monitoring," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 251-269, June.
    5. Reinganum, Jennifer F & Stokey, Nancy L, 1985. "Oligopoly Extraction of a Common Property Natural Resource: The Importance of the Period of Commitment in Dynamic Games," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(1), pages 161-173, February.
    6. Christiano, Lawrence J., 1985. "A method for estimating the timing interval in a linear econometric model, with an application to Taylor's model of staggered contracts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 363-404, December.
    7. Whiteman, Charles H, 1986. "An Analytical Policy Design under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(6), pages 1387-1405, November.
    8. Lucas, Robert Jr. & Stokey, Nancy L., 1983. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 55-93.
    9. Sargent, Thomas J, 1984. "Autoregressions, Expectations, and Advice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 408-415, May.
    10. Roberds, William, 1987. "Models of Policy under Stochastic Replanning," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(3), pages 731-755, October.
    11. Taub, Bart, 1986. "Asymptotic Properties of Pipeline Control of the Money Supply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 27(3), pages 647-665, October.
    12. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kasa, Kenneth, 2002. "Model Uncertainty, Robust Policies, And The Value Of Commitment," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 145-166, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Schaumburg, Ernst & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2007. "An investigation of the gains from commitment in monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 302-324, March.
    2. Roque B. Fernández, 1991. "What Have Populists Learned from Hyperinflation?," NBER Chapters, in: The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America, pages 121-149, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Chari, V V & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1990. "Sustainable Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 783-802, August.
    4. Ester Faia & Tommaso Monacelli, 2003. "Ramsey monetary policy and international relative prices," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Mats Persson & Torsten Persson & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Debt, Cash Flow and Inflation Incentives: A Swedish Example," International Economic Association Series, in: Guillermo Calvo & Mervyn King (ed.), The Debt Burden and its Consequences for Monetary Policy, chapter 2, pages 28-66, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. Stefania Albanesi & V. V. Chari & Lawrence J. Christiano, 2003. "Expectation Traps and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(4), pages 715-741.
    7. Westerhout, Ed, 2021. "Inflation-Linked Bonds, Nominal Bonds, and Countercyclical Monetary Policies," Discussion Paper 2021-001, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    8. V. V. Chari, 1999. "Nobel laureate Robert E. Lucas, Jr.; architect of modern macroeconomics," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 23(Spr), pages 2-12.
    9. Maurice Obstfeld, 1989. "Dynamic Seigniorage Theory: An Exploration," NBER Working Papers 2869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2013. "Fiscal Multipliers and Policy Coordination," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 6, pages 175-234, Central Bank of Chile.
    11. Ester Faia & Tommaso Monacelli, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy with Home Bias," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 721-750, June.
    12. Begoña Domínguez & Pedro Gomis‐Porqueras, 2021. "On the Time Inconsistency of Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policies with Many Consumer Goods," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 123(1), pages 60-83, January.
    13. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2006. "Modern Macroeconomics in Practice: How Theory Is Shaping Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 3-28, Fall.
    14. Robert J. Barro, 1984. "Rules versus Discretion," NBER Working Papers 1473, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Gary Gorton & Ping He, 2023. "Optimal monetary policy in a collateralized economy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 75(1), pages 55-89, January.
    16. Jang, Youngsoo, 2023. "On the Time Consistency of Universal Basic Income," MPRA Paper 117674, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Roberds, William, 1987. "Models of Policy under Stochastic Replanning," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(3), pages 731-755, October.
    18. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 2024. "Optimal Contracts and Inflation Targets Revisited," Working Paper Series 436, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    19. V. V. Chari, 1988. "Time consistency and optimal policy design," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 17-31.
    20. Xie, Danyang, 1997. "On Time Inconsistency: A Technical Issue in Stackelberg Differential Games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 412-430, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfap:94-16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbsfus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.