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Rules versus Discretion

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  • Robert J. Barro

Abstract

Under a discretionary regime the monetary authority makes no commitments about future money and prices. Then, if surprise inflation conveys economic benefits and if people form expectations rationally, it turns out that the equilibrium involves high and variable monetary growth and inflation. Moreover, since the high rate of inflation is anticipated there are no benefits from inflation surprises. The implementation of an enforced rule can lower the mean rate of inflation while delivering the same average amount of inflation surprises, namely zero. Using these results as a background, the paper discusses alternative monetary rules, including quantity versus price rules and a prescription for stablilizing nominal GNP. This discussion touches on the distinction between positive and normative economics, which leads to a pessimistic appraisal of the role for economists' policy advice.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert J. Barro, 1984. "Rules versus Discretion," NBER Working Papers 1473, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1473
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Melecky, Martin, 2012. "Formulation of public debt management strategies: An empirical study of possible drivers," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 218-234.
    2. Crawford, Ron, 2009. "Variations in earnings growth: evidence from earnings transitions in the NZ Linked Income Survey," ISER Working Paper Series 2009-18, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    3. Juan Ayuso Huertas, 1991. "Los efectos del anuncio de un objetivo de inflación," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 15(3), pages 627-644, September.
    4. John P. Judd, 1995. "Inflation goals and credibility," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue may12.
    5. James Caton, 2020. "The evolution of Hayek's thought on gold and monetary standards," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 87(1), pages 386-405, July.

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