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The Returns to Government R&D: Evidence from U.S. Appropriations Shocks

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Abstract

Based on a narrative classification of all significant postwar changes in R&D appropriations for five major federal agencies, we find that an increase in nondefense R&D appropriations leads to increases in various measures of innovative activity and higher business-sector productivity in the long run. We structurally estimate the production function elasticity of nondefense government R&D capital using the SP-IV methodology of Lewis and Mertens (2023) and obtain implied returns of 140 to 210 percent over the postwar period. The estimates indicate that government-funded R&D accounts for one-fifth of business-sector TFP growth since WWII, and imply substantial underfunding of nondefense R&D.

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  • Andrew J. Fieldhouse & Karel Mertens, 2023. "The Returns to Government R&D: Evidence from U.S. Appropriations Shocks," Working Papers 2305, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 21 Nov 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:96171
    DOI: 10.24149/wp2305r2
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    2. Nicholas Bloom & John Van Reenen & Heidi Williams, 2019. "A toolkit of policies to promote innovation," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 10.
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    4. Andrew J Fieldhouse & Karel Mertens & Morten O Ravn, 2018. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Government Asset Purchases: Evidence from Postwar U.S. Housing Credit Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1503-1560.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    government; R&D; productivity; growth; narrative analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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