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Internal rates of return for public R&D from VECM estimates for 17 OECD Countries

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  • Thomas H.W. Ziesemer

    (Maastricht University, UNU-MERIT)

Abstract

Public R&D stimulates domestic private and foreign private and public R&D, together enhancing technical change and thereby GDP. In this paper, we evaluate vector-error-correction model (VECM) estimations and simulations of a companion paper in regard to internal rates of return (and related aspects) to additional public R&D of OECD countries and compare them to the macroeconomic literature. We show (i) internal rates of return to public R&D shocks, and (ii) the related payback periods, gain/GDP ratios, and sums of discounted (at 4%) gains. Fourteen of 17 countries show high internal rates of return, short payback periods, and high gains/GDP ratios from positive public R&D shocks if projects are stopped when gains get negative. Three countries show crowding-out effects and require (initial) reductions of public R&D before showing positive results.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas H.W. Ziesemer, 2024. "Internal rates of return for public R&D from VECM estimates for 17 OECD Countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 1-16, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:57:y:2024:i:5:d:10.1007_s10644-024-09740-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10644-024-09740-8
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    Keywords

    Public R&D; Growth; VECM; Internal rates of return;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H43 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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