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Explaining International Business Cycle Synchronization: Recursive Preferences and the Terms of Trade Channel

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  • Robert Kollmann

Abstract

The business cycles of advanced economies are synchronized. Standard macro models fail to explain that fact. This paper presents a simple model of a two-country, two-traded good, complete-financial-markets world in which country-specific productivity shocks generate business cycles that are highly correlated internationally. The model assumes recursive intertemporal preferences (Epstein-Zin-Weil), and a muted response of labor hours to household wealth changes (due to Greenwood-Hercowitz-Huffman period utility and demand-determined employment under rigid wages). Recursive intertemporal preferences magnify the terms of trade response to country-specific shocks. Hence, a productivity (and GDP) increase in a given country triggers a strong improvement of the foreign country?s terms of trade, which raises foreign labor demand. With a muted labor wealth effect, foreign labor and GDP rise, i.e. domestic and foreign real activity commove positively.

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  • Robert Kollmann, 2017. "Explaining International Business Cycle Synchronization: Recursive Preferences and the Terms of Trade Channel," Globalization Institute Working Papers 307, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:307
    DOI: 10.24149/gwp307
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    2. Olivier CARDI & Romain RESTOUT, 2023. "Why Hours Worked Decline Less After Technology Shocks?," Working Papers of BETA 2023-30, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    3. Myunghyun Kim, 2020. "Does The Number Of Countries In International Business Cycle Models Matter?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(3), pages 1414-1429, July.
    4. Azcona, Nestor, 2022. "Trade and business cycle synchronization: The role of common trade partners," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 190-201.
    5. Gete, Pedro & Melkadze, Givi, 2018. "Aggregate volatility and international dynamics. The role of credit supply," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 143-158.
    6. Audzei, Volha, 2023. "Learning and cross-country correlations in a multi-country DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    7. Tamas Z. Csabafi & Max Gillman & Ruthira Naraidoo, 2019. "International Business Cycle and Financial Intermediation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(8), pages 2293-2303, December.
    8. Ansgar Belke & Clemens Domnick & Daniel Gros, 2017. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the EMU: Core vs. Periphery," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 863-892, November.
    9. Benjamin Schwanebeck, 2017. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in a Financially Heterogeneous Monetary Union," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201741, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    10. Kimberly A. Berg & Nelson C. Mark, 2024. "Uncertainty, Long‐Run, And Monetary Policy Risks In A Two‐Country Macro Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(3), pages 1387-1413, August.
    11. Nestor Azcona, 2022. "Business Cycle Co-Movement in Europe: Trade, Industry Composition and the Single Currency," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 121-139, February.
    12. Szafranek, Karol, 2021. "Disentangling the sources of inflation synchronization. Evidence from a large panel dataset," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 229-245.
    13. Szafranek, Karol, 2021. "Evidence on time-varying inflation synchronization," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 1-13.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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