IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedcwq/99613.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Neoclassical Model of the World Financial Cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Yan Bai
  • Patrick J. Kehoe
  • Pierlauro Lopez
  • Fabrizio Perri

Abstract

Emerging markets face large and persistent fluctuations in sovereign spreads. To what extent are these fluctuations driven by local shocks versus financial conditions in advanced economies? To answer this question, we develop a neoclassical business cycle model of a world economy with an advanced country, the North, and many emerging market economies, the South. Northern households invest in domestic stocks, domestic defaultable bonds, and international sovereign debt. Over the 2008-2016 period, the global cycle phase, the North accounts for 68% of Southern spreads' fluctuations. Over the whole 1994-2024 period, however, Northern shocks account for less than 20% of these fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Yan Bai & Patrick J. Kehoe & Pierlauro Lopez & Fabrizio Perri, 2025. "A Neoclassical Model of the World Financial Cycle," Working Papers 25-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwq:99613
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-202506
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-202506
    File Function: Persistent link
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.clevelandfed.org/-/media/project/clevelandfedtenant/clevelandfedsite/publications/working-papers/2025/wp2506_20250225.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.26509/frbc-wp-202506?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    international business cycles; sovereign debt; default; long run risk; Epstein-Zin preferences; global banks; global cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwq:99613. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: 4D Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbclus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.