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Is Post-pandemic Wage Growth Fueling Inflation?

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Abstract

Inflation in the United States surged after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, reaching levels not seen in four decades. Supply chain disruptions, extraordinary fiscal support for households, labor market shortages, and lockdowns and other public health measures contributed to this surge, which first manifested as goods price inflation. Nominal wage growth also increased significantly and has remained at levels above pre-pandemic averages, raising concerns that it could trigger a wage-price spiral and extend the current episode of high inflation. Indeed, the increase in wage growth has coincided with an increase in service inflation, which is known to be more persistent than goods inflation and to account for a majority of overall inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Andrade & Falk Bräuning & José Fillat & Gustavo Joaquim, 2024. "Is Post-pandemic Wage Growth Fueling Inflation?," Current Policy Perspectives 2024-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbcq:97617
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kilian,Lutz & Lütkepohl,Helmut, 2018. "Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107196575, September.
    2. José Luis Montiel Olea & Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller, 2021. "Local Projection Inference Is Simpler and More Robust Than You Think," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(4), pages 1789-1823, July.
    3. Adam Hale Shapiro, 2023. "How Much Do Labor Costs Drive Inflation?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(13), pages 1-6, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; inflation; wage growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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