IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fgv/epgewp/602.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Limite de endividamento e sustentabilidade fiscal no Brasil: uma abordagem via modelo quantílico auto-regressivo (QAR)

Author

Listed:
  • Lima, Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira
  • Sampaio, Raquel Menezes Bezerra
  • Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza

Abstract

Neste artigo investigamos a sustentabilidade fiscal no Brasil através de um modelo Quantílico Auto-Regressivo (QAR). Esta metodologia nos permite caracterizar a dinâmica da dívida pública e construir uma medida limite de endividamento, compatível com a sustentabilidade fiscal. Tal limite de endividamento constitui-se um indicador de grande importância para guiar os gestores da dívida pública, de forma a mantê-la sustentável no longo prazo, evitando uma austeridade fiscal excessiva. Nossos resultados indicam que a dívida pública (federal e interna) brasileira é globalmente sustentável a 10% de significância, apesar de ter ultrapassado o limite de endividamento por inúmeras vezes nos dois últimos anos. Por fim, sugerimos uma redução de 5% na razão dívida/PIB até o final de 2006, de forma a garantir a sustentabilidade fiscal do Brasil no longo prazo. Desta forma, apresentamos um arcabouço teórico consistente, e sua respectiva aplicação prática, com o intuito de contribuir para o planejamento estratégico e a gestão da dívida pública no Brasil.

Suggested Citation

  • Lima, Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira & Sampaio, Raquel Menezes Bezerra & Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza, 2005. "Limite de endividamento e sustentabilidade fiscal no Brasil: uma abordagem via modelo quantílico auto-regressivo (QAR)," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 602, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:602
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repositorio.fgv.br/bitstreams/d20b5cfb-61c3-4960-85d4-b121eaf86016/download
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aloisio Araujo & Mario Pascoa & Juan Pablo Torres-Martinez, 2005. "Bubbles, collateral and monetary equilibrium," Textos para discussão 513, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    2. Monteiro, Paulo Klinger, 2009. "First-price auction symmetric equilibria with a general distribution," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 256-269, January.
    3. Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2006. "Income inequality in a job-search model with heterogeneous discount factors: (revised version, forthcoming 2006, Revista Economia)," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 611, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    4. Renato G. Flôres & Maria Paula Fontoura & Rogério Guerra Santos, 2007. "Foreign Direct Investment Spillovers in Portugal: Additional Lessons from a Country Study," The European Journal of Development Research, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 372-390.
    5. Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2006. "An intra-household approach to the welfare costs of inflation (Revised Version, Forthcoming 2006, Estudos Econômicos)," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 612, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    6. Cavalcanti, Ricardo de Oliveira & Wallace, Neil, 2006. "New models of old(?) payment questions," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 619, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    7. Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão, 2006. "Dois ensaios sobre diversidade cultural e o comércio de serviços," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 622, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    8. Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão, 2006. "The diversity of diversity: further methodological considerations on the use of the concept in cultural economics," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 626, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    9. Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão & Watanuki, Masakazu, 2006. "Integration options for mercosul - an investigation Uusing the AMIDA Model," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 610, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:602. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Núcleo de Computação da FGV EPGE (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/epgvfbr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.