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Public debt sustainability and endogenous seignorage in Brazil: time-series evidence from 1947-92

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  • Issler, João Victor
  • Lima, Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira

Abstract

Using national accounts data for the revenue-GDP and expenditure GDP ratios from 1947 to 1992, we examine two central issues in public finance. First, was the path of public debt sustainable during this period? Second, if debt is sustainable, how has the government historically balanced the budget after hocks to either revenues or expenditures? The results show that (i) public deficit is stationary (bounded asymptotic variance), with the budget in Brazil being balanced almost entirely through changes in taxes, regardless of the cause of the initial imbalance. Expenditures are weakly exogenous, but tax revenues are not;(ii) a rational Brazilian consumer can have a behavior consistent with Ricardian Equivalence (iii) seignorage revenues are critical to restore intertemporal budget equilibrium, since, when we exclude them from total revenues, debt is not sustainable in econometric tests.

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  • Issler, João Victor & Lima, Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira, 1997. "Public debt sustainability and endogenous seignorage in Brazil: time-series evidence from 1947-92," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 306, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:306
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Amir Kia, 2005. "Sustainability of the Fiscal Process in Developing Countries- Egypt, Iran and Turkey: A Multicointegration Approach – revised version: Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Countries: Evidence from Iran a," Carleton Economic Papers 05-08, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2008.
    2. Ohana, Eduardo Felipe, 1997. "The Brazilian 1994 stabilization plan: an analytical view," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 307, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).

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