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Measuring the Fiscal Stance

Author

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  • Vito Polito
  • Mike Wickens

Abstract

In this paper we propose an index of the fiscal stance suitable for practical use in short-term policy making. The index is based on a comparison of a target level of the debt-GDP ratio for a given finite horizon with a forecast of the debt-GDP ratio based on a VAR formed from the government budget constraint. This approach to measuring the fiscal stance is different from the literature on fiscal sustainability. We emphasise the importance of having a forward-looking measure of the fiscal stance for the immediate future rather than a test for fiscal sustainability that is backward-looking, or based just on past behaviour which may not be closely related to the current fiscal position. We use our methodology to construct a time series of the indices of the fiscal stances of the US, the UK and Germany over the last 25 or more years. We find that both the US and UK fiscal stances have deteriorated considerably since 2000 and Germany's has been steadily deteriorating since unification in 1989, and worsened again on joining EMU.

Suggested Citation

  • Vito Polito & Mike Wickens, 2007. "Measuring the Fiscal Stance," Discussion Papers 07/14, Department of Economics, University of York.
    • Handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:07/14
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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriella Legrenzi & Costas Milas, 2012. "Fiscal Policy Sustainability, Economic Cycle and Financial Crises: The Case of the GIPS," Working Paper series 54_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    2. Reda Cherif & Fuad Hasanov, 2018. "Public debt dynamics: the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 1087-1105, May.
    3. Reda, Cherif & Fuad, Hasanov, 2010. "Public Debt Dynamics and Debt Feedback," MPRA Paper 27918, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Zdeněk Pikhart & Lukáš Pfeifer & Pavla Chmelová, 2015. "Reakční funkce a udržitelnost fiskální politiky [Fiscal Policy Reaction Function and Sustainability]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(5), pages 545-569.
    5. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Mizoguchi, Tetsuro, 2018. "Fiscal Policy Conditions for Government Budget Stability and Economic Recovery: Comparative Analysis of Japan and Greece," ADBI Working Papers 851, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    6. guo, Min & zhao, jizhi & huang, yixuan, 2014. "国家债务适度规模研究 —基于因子增强阈值模型 [a Study of Moderate Scale of Public Debt - Based on Factor-Augmented Threshold Model]," MPRA Paper 56067, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Kayandabila, Yamungu & Manyama, Mulesi Kanyere, 2013. "Fiscal Policy and Debt Dynamic: Evidence from Tanzania," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 1(2), July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Budget deficits; government debt; fiscal sustainability; VAR analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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