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Sistemas técnicos de trading no mercado de ações brasileiro: testando a hipótese de eficiência de mercado em sua forma fraca e avaliando se a análise técnica agrega valor

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  • Serafini, Daniel Guedine
  • Pereira, Pedro L. Valls

Abstract

The purpose of this job is to examine if the technical analysis may or may not add value to investment decisions. Through the development of confidence intervals, constructed using the technique of Bootstrap sample inference, and consistent with the null hypothesis of market efficiency in its weak form, we tested 4 technical systems of trading. More specifically, we obtained the results of each system applied to the original series of the assets. Then we compared these results with the average of the results obtained when the same systems were applied to 1000 simulated series, according to a random walk, of each asset. If markets are efficient in its weak form, there would be no reason for the results of the original series to be larger than those of the simulated series. The empirical results found here suggested that the systems tested were unable to anticipate the future using only past data. However, some of them have generated significant returns

Suggested Citation

  • Serafini, Daniel Guedine & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2010. "Sistemas técnicos de trading no mercado de ações brasileiro: testando a hipótese de eficiência de mercado em sua forma fraca e avaliando se a análise técnica agrega valor," Textos para discussão 260, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:eesptd:260
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