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The representativeness heuristic and the choice of lottery tickets: A field experiment

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  • Michal Krawczyk
  • Joanna Rachubik

Abstract

The representativeness heuristic (RH) has been proposed to be at the root of several types of biases in judgment. In this project, we ask whether the RH is relevant in two kinds of choices in the context of gambling. Specifically, in a field experiment with naturalistic stimuli and a potentially extremely high monetary pay-out, we give each of our subjects a choice between a lottery ticket with a random-looking number sequence and a ticket with a patterned sequence; we subsequently offer them a small cash bonus if they switch to the other ticket. In the second task, we investigate the gambler's fallacy, asking subjects what they believe the outcome of a fourth coin toss after a sequence of three identical outcomes will be. We find that most subjects prefer "random" sequences, and that approximately half believe in dependence between subsequent coin tosses. There is no correlation, though, between the initial choice of the lottery ticket and the prediction of the coin toss. Nonetheless, subjects who have a strong preference for certain number combinations (i.e., subjects who are willing to forgo the cash bonus and remain with their initial choice) also tend to predict a specific outcome (in particular a reversal, corresponding to the gambler's fallacy) in the coin task.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Krawczyk & Joanna Rachubik, 2019. "The representativeness heuristic and the choice of lottery tickets: A field experiment," Natural Field Experiments 00693, The Field Experiments Website.
    • Handle: RePEc:feb:natura:00693
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sigrid Suetens & Claus B. Galbo-Jørgensen & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2016. "Predicting Lotto Numbers: A Natural Experiment On The Gambler'S Fallacy And The Hot-Hand Fallacy," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 584-607, June.
    2. repec:cup:judgdm:v:11:y:2016:i:3:p:243-259 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Sigrid Suetens & Claus B. Galbo-Jørgensen & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2016. "Predicting Lotto Numbers: A Natural Experiment On The Gambler'S Fallacy And The Hot-Hand Fallacy," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 584-607, June.
    4. repec:cup:judgdm:v:1:y:2006:i::p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Lien, Jaimie W. & Yuan, Jia, 2015. "The cross-sectional “Gambler's Fallacy”: Set representativeness in lottery number choices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 163-172.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Wolff, Irenaeus, 2021. "The lottery player’s fallacy: Why labels predict strategic choices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 16-29.
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    5. Tariq Mahadeen & Kostas Galanakis & Elpida Samara & Pavlos Kilintzis, 2021. "Heuristics and Evidences Decision (HeED) Making: a Case Study in a Systemic Model for Transforming Decision Making from Heuristics-Based to Evidenced-Based," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 12(4), pages 1668-1693, December.
    6. repec:cup:judgdm:v:16:y:2021:i:4:p:1060-1071 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Michał Wiktor Krawczyk & Joanna Rachubik, 2019. "The limitations of the representativeness heuristic: further evidence from choices between lottery tickets," Working Papers 2019-11, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    8. Oluwaseun A. Otekunrin & Adesola G. Folorunso & Kehinde O. Alawode, 2021. "Number preferences in selected Nigerian lottery games," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 16(4), pages 1060-1071, July.

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