IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fdi/wpaper/467.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The (lack of) impact of impact: Why impact evaluations seldom lead to evidence-based policymaking

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-Louis ARCAND

    (Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva)

Abstract

A recurring puzzle to many academics and some policymakers is why impact evaluations, which have become something of a cottage industry in the development field, have so little impact on actual policymaking. In this paper, I study the impact of impact evaluations. I show, in a simple Bayesian framework embedded within a standard contest success function-based model of competition amongst anti-evaluation policymakers, Bayesian policymakers, and frequentist evaluators, that the likelihood of a program being cancelled is a decreasing function both of the impact estimated by the evaluation and of the prior on whose basis the program was approved to begin with. Moreover, the probability of cancellation is a decreasing function of the effectiveness of the influence exerted by frequentist evaluators.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Louis ARCAND, 2013. "The (lack of) impact of impact: Why impact evaluations seldom lead to evidence-based policymaking," Working Papers P73, FERDI.
    • Handle: RePEc:fdi:wpaper:467
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ferdi.fr/sites/www.ferdi.fr/files/publication/fichiers/WP73_JLArcand_web.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Geweke, John, 2001. "A note on some limitations of CRRA utility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 341-345, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jacob, Arun, 2017. "Mind the Gap: Analyzing the Impact of Data Gap in Millennium Development Goals’ (MDGs) Indicators on the Progress toward MDGs," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 260-278.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ammann, Manuel & Coqueret, Guillaume & Schade, Jan-Philip, 2016. "Characteristics-based portfolio choice with leverage constraints," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 23-37.
    2. Adam, Klaus & Marcet, Albert, 2011. "Internal rationality, imperfect market knowledge and asset prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1224-1252, May.
    3. Assa, Hirbod & Zimper, Alexander, 2018. "Preferences over all random variables: Incompatibility of convexity and continuity," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 71-83.
    4. Ikefuji, Masako & Laeven, Roger J.A. & Magnus, Jan R. & Muris, Chris, 2020. "Expected utility and catastrophic risk in a stochastic economy–climate model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 110-129.
    5. Yiqun Mou & Lars A. Lochstoer & Michael Johannes, 2011. "Learning about Consumption Dynamics," 2011 Meeting Papers 306, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Bakshi, Gurdip & Skoulakis, Georgios, 2010. "Do subjective expectations explain asset pricing puzzles?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 462-477, December.
    7. Penaranda, Francisco, 2007. "Portfolio choice beyond the traditional approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24481, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Suen, Richard M. H., 2009. "Bounding the CRRA Utility Functions," MPRA Paper 13260, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. M. Mercè Claramunt & Maite Mármol & Xavier Varea, 2023. "Facing a Risk: To Insure or Not to Insure—An Analysis with the Constant Relative Risk Aversion Utility Function," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-13, February.
    10. Chen, Yu & Cosimano, Thomas F. & Himonas, Alex A., 2008. "Analytic solving of asset pricing models: The by force of habit case," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 3631-3660, November.
    11. Gurdip Bakshi, 2009. "Du subjectiv expectations explain asset pricing puzzles?," 2009 Meeting Papers 1234, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Michael Johannes & Lars A. Lochstoer, 2016. "Parameter Learning in General Equilibrium: The Asset Pricing Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(3), pages 664-698, March.
    13. Ikefuji, Masako & Laeven, Roger J.A. & Magnus, Jan R. & Muris, Chris, 2015. "Expected utility and catastrophic consumption risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 306-312.
    14. Martin Weitzman, 2007. "Structural Uncertainty and the Value of Statistical Life in the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change," NBER Working Papers 13490, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Nestor Gandelman & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo, 2015. "Risk Aversion at the Country Level," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 97(1), pages 53-66.
    16. Ross McKitrick, 2013. "State-contingent pricing as a response to uncertainty in climate policy," Chapters, in: Roger Fouquet (ed.), Handbook on Energy and Climate Change, chapter 18, pages 415-433, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2007. "Learning, Structural Instability, and Present Value Calculations," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 253-288.
    18. Hassler, J. & Krusell, P. & Smith, A.A., 2016. "Environmental Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1893-2008, Elsevier.
    19. Antonio Gargano & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2019. "Bond Return Predictability: Economic Value and Links to the Macroeconomy," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(2), pages 508-540, February.
    20. William A. Branch & George W. Evans, 2011. "Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 159-191, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • D04 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Policy: Formulation; Implementation; Evaluation
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fdi:wpaper:467. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Vincent Mazenod (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ferdifr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.