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La salud financiera del sistema público de pensiones español: proyecciones de largo plazo y factores de riesgo

Author

Listed:
  • Angel de la Fuente
  • Miguel Angel García Díaz
  • Alfonso R. Sánchez

Abstract

En el presente trabajo se construyen proyecciones de largo plazo de los gastos e ingresos del sistema público de pensiones contributivas español bajo diversos escenarios macroeconómicos y distintas opciones de política utilizando un modelo dinámico de equilibrio general. Bajo las hipótesis que subyacen a las proyecciones de la Comisión Europea, las reformas adoptadas por los dos últimos Gobiernos conseguirían contener el gasto durante las próximas décadas a la vez que el crecimiento de la productividad permitiría mantener la pensión media aproximadamente constante en términos reales. El principal riesgo que se plantea bajo este escenario tiene que ver con la evolución del poder adquisitivo de las pensiones una vez concedidas, que dependerá de la evolución de la inflación. En el trabajo se exploran los costes de algunas medidas que se han propuesto con el fin de mitigar este problema y se cuantifica también el impacto de posibles desviaciones sobre el escenario central. Nuestros cálculos sugieren que hay margen para medidas que mitiguen los efectos más adversos del IRP, pero no para volver sin más a la indexación general de las pensiones al IPC.

Suggested Citation

  • Angel de la Fuente & Miguel Angel García Díaz & Alfonso R. Sánchez, 2018. "La salud financiera del sistema público de pensiones español: proyecciones de largo plazo y factores de riesgo," Policy Papers 2018-03, FEDEA.
    • Handle: RePEc:fda:fdapop:2018-03
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alfonso R. Sanchez Martín & Virginia SanchezMarcos, 2010. "Demographic Change and Pension Reform in Spain: An Assessment in a Two-Earner, OLG Model," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 31(3), pages 405-452, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Golpe, Antonio A. & Sánchez-Fuentes, A. Jesus & Vides, José Carlos, 2023. "Fiscal sustainability, monetary policy and economic growth in the Euro Area: In search of the ultimate causal path," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1026-1045.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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