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Reforma de pensiones 2011 en España

Author

Listed:
  • J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz

    (Universidad Complutense – FEDEA)

  • Clara I. González

    (FEDEA)

Abstract

El objetivo de este artículo es evaluar el impacto de la reforma de pensiones aprobada en 2011. A través de un modelo de proyección contable con agentes heterogéneos y generaciones solapadas se proyectan los ingresos y gastos del sistema de pensiones para las próximas seis décadas. En concreto, se evalúa el impacto en términos de gasto que tendrá cada una de las modificaciones aprobadas en tasa de sustitución, ampliación del periodo de cálculo y retraso de la edad de jubilación. Adicionalmente, es el primer trabajo hasta la fecha que evalúa el impacto de la reforma bajo cuatro escenarios migratorios alternativos: i) el publicado por el INE en el año 2005 con una hipótesis de entrada neta de inmigrantes de 270.000 personas, ii) el publicado por el INE en 2010 donde el flujo neto migratorio se reduce a 70.000 personas al año, iii) el más reciente del INE del año 2012 con flujos migratorios negativos hasta el año 2036, y iv) otro escenario propuesto en este trabajo que incorpora una hipótesis migratoria vinculada a las necesidades de ocupados del mercado laboral. Finalmente, se analizan los cambios en las pensiones medias segun sexo, nivel educativo y nacionalidad. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que estas tres modificaciones aprobadas (sin poder tener en cuenta el “factor de sostenibilidad” por falta de concreción en la ley) podrían llegar a suponer un ahorro de 3 puntos porcentuales del PIB en el año 2051, casi un tercio del incremento esperado del gasto hasta el año 2051. Ante escenarios migratorios mas adversos, el ahorro seria cuantitativamente mayor pero en términos relativos supondría un menor porcentaje del incremento de gasto en las próximas décadas.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Clara I. González, 2013. "Reforma de pensiones 2011 en España," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 204(1), pages 9-44, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:hpe:journl:y:2013:v:204:i:1:p:9-44
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Clara Isabel González & J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Michele Boldrin, 2008. "Immigration and Social Security in Spain," Working Papers 2008-36, FEDEA.
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    9. Javier Alonso Meseguer & José A. Herce, "undated". "Balance del sistema de pensiones y boom migratorio en España. Proyecciones del modelo MODPENS de FEDEA a 2050," Working Papers 2003-02, FEDEA.
    10. Alfonso R. Sanchez Martín & Virginia SanchezMarcos, 2010. "Demographic Change and Pension Reform in Spain: An Assessment in a Two-Earner, OLG Model," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 31(3), pages 405-452, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Angel de la Fuente, 2015. "A Simple Model of Aggregate Pension Expenditure," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 212(1), pages 13-50, March.
    2. Díaz-Giménez, Javier & Díaz-Saavedra, Julián, 2017. "The future of Spanish pensions," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 233-265, April.
    3. Javier Diaz Gimenez & Javier Diaz Jimenez, 2015. "Spanish Minimum Pensions after the 2013 Pension Reform," ThE Papers 15/04, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    4. Pilar García-Gómez & Sílvia Garcia-Mandicó & Sergi Jiménez-Martín & Judit Vall-Castelló, 2018. "Trends in Employment and Social Security Incentives in the Spanish Pension System, 1980–2016," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Reforms and Retirement Incentives, pages 317-371, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Juan Manuel Pérez-Salamero González & Marta Regúlez-Castillo & Carlos Vidal-Meliá, 2017. "The continuous sample of working lives: improving its representativeness," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 43-95, March.
    6. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Clara I. González, 2016. "From Bismarck to Beveridge: the other pension reform in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 461-490, November.
    7. Santacruz Cano, Javier & Bernal Alonso, Miguel Ángel, 2015. "Efficiency in Pension Funds Management in a QE Environment: The Case of Spain/Eficiencia en la gestión de los fondos de pensiones en un entorno de QE: El caso de España," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 33, pages 687-700, Septiembr.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    envejecimiento; reforma sistema de pensiones español; modelo de proyección contable; agentes heterogéneos; generaciones solapadas;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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