IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fau/wpaper/wp2011_19.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Research & Development and Long-Term Economic Growth: A Bayesian Model Averaging Analysis

Author

Abstract

We examine the effect of research and development (R&D) on long-term economic growth using the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to deal rigorously with model uncertainty. Previous empirical studies investigated the effect of dozens of regressors on long-term growth, but they did not examine the effect of R&D due to data unavailability. We extend these studies by proposing to capture the R&D intensity by the number of Nobel prizes in science. Using our indicator, our estimates show that R&D exerts a positive effect on long-term growth with posterior inclusion probability of 0.25 using our preferred parameter and model priors.

Suggested Citation

  • Roman Horváth, 2011. "Research & Development and Long-Term Economic Growth: A Bayesian Model Averaging Analysis," Working Papers IES 2011/19, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jun 2011.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2011_19
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/default/file/download/id/16899
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Abida Hafeez & Karim Bux Shah Syed & Fiza Qureshi, 2019. "Exploring the Relationship between Government R & D Expenditures and Economic Growth in a Global Perspective: A PMG Estimation Approach," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(4), pages 163-174, April.
    2. Chandrashekar Raghutla & Krishna Reddy Chittedi, 2021. "Financial development, real sector and economic growth: Evidence from emerging market economies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 6156-6167, October.
    3. Balázs Egert, 2017. "The Impact Of Regulations And Institutions On Multi-Factor Productivity: New Evidence From Macroeconomic Estimates," Working Papers hal-04141653, HAL.
    4. Niu, Linlin & Xu, Xiu & Chen, Ying, 2017. "An adaptive approach to forecasting three key macroeconomic variables for transitional China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 201-213.
    5. Balázs Égert, 2016. "Regulation, Institutions, and Productivity: New Macroeconomic Evidence from OECD Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 109-113, May.
    6. Lucchetti, Riccardo & Pedini, Luca & Pigini, Claudia, 2022. "No such thing as the perfect match: Bayesian Model Averaging for treatment evaluation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    7. Mehmet Balcilar & Ojonugwa Usman & George N. Ike, 2023. "Investing green for sustainable development without ditching economic growth," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 728-743, April.
    8. Begüm Erdil Şahin, 2015. "The Relationship Between R&D Expenditures and Economic Growth: Panel Data Analysis 1990-2013," EY International Congress on Economics II (EYC2015), November 5-6, 2015, Ankara, Turkey 207, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association.
    9. Marcin Błażejowski & Jacek Kwiatkowski & Jakub Gazda, 2019. "Sources of Economic Growth: A Global Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, January.
    10. John Inekwe, 2015. "The Contribution of R&D Expenditure to Economic Growth in Developing Economies," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 124(3), pages 727-745, December.
    11. Zafar, Muhammad Wasif & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hou, Fujun & Sinha, Avik, 2018. "¬¬¬¬¬¬From Nonrenewable to Renewable Energy and Its Impact on Economic Growth: Silver Line of Research & Development Expenditures in APEC Countries," MPRA Paper 90611, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Dec 2018.
    12. Acheampong, Alex O. & Dzator, Janet & Dzator, Michael & Salim, Ruhul, 2022. "Unveiling the effect of transport infrastructure and technological innovation on economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    13. Yuri S. Popkov & Yuri A. Dubnov & Alexey Yu. Popkov, 2016. "New Method of Randomized Forecasting Using Entropy-Robust Estimation: Application to the World Population Prediction," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-16, March.
    14. Ulger, Ozlem & Uçan, Okyay, 2018. "R&D expenditures - growth nexus in Turkey," MPRA Paper 91060, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Reiner Eichenberger & David Stadelmann, 2009. "Consequences of Debt Capitalization: Property Ownership and Debt/Tax Choice," CREMA Working Paper Series 2009-08, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    2. António Afonso & José Alves & Krzysztof Beck, 2022. "Pay and unemployment determinants of migration flows in the European Union," Working Papers REM 2022/0251, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    3. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2011. "Market Freedom and the Global Recession," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(1), pages 111-135, April.
    4. Jan Kluge & Sarah Lappöhn & Kerstin Plank, 2023. "Predictors of TFP growth in European countries," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(1), pages 109-140, February.
    5. Mary Amiti & Jozef Konings, 2007. "Trade Liberalization, Intermediate Inputs, and Productivity: Evidence from Indonesia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1611-1638, December.
    6. Steven N. Durlauf & Andros Kourtellos & Chih Ming Tan, 2012. "Is God in the details? A reexamination of the role of religion in economic growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 1059-1075, November.
    7. Christoph Moser & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2011. "Explaining IMF lending decisions after the Cold War," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 307-340, September.
    8. Antonio Ciccone & Marek Jarociński, 2010. "Determinants of Economic Growth: Will Data Tell?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 222-246, October.
    9. Hailu, Degol & Kipgen, Chinpihoi, 2017. "The Extractives Dependence Index (EDI)," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 251-264.
    10. Sai Ding & John Knight, 2011. "Why has China Grown So Fast? The Role of Physical and Human Capital Formation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(2), pages 141-174, April.
    11. Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti & Luca Pedini, 2020. "ParMA: Parallelised Bayesian Model Averaging for Generalised Linear Models," Working Papers 2020:28, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    12. Naima Chrid & Sami Saafi & Mohamed Chakroun, 2021. "Export Upgrading and Economic Growth: a Panel Cointegration and Causality Analysis," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 12(2), pages 811-841, June.
    13. Carlos Morales, 2011. "Variedades de recursos naturales y crecimiento económico," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, December.
    14. Andrzej Cieślik & Oleg Gurshev, 2021. "Factor Endowments, Economic Integration, Round-Tripping, and Inward FDI: Evidence from the Baltic Economies," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-26, July.
    15. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, 2010. "Natural Disasters and Human Capital Accumulation," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 24(2), pages 280-302, July.
    16. Jan Babecky & Tomas Havranek, 2013. "Structural Reforms and Growth in Transition: A Meta-Analysis," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1057, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    17. Richard S.J. Tol & Gary W. Yohe, 2006. "The Weakest Link Hypothesis For Adaptive Capacity: An Empirical Test," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2006-005, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    18. Benecká, Soňa & Komarek, Lubos, 2018. "International reserves: Facing model uncertainty," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 523-531.
    19. Beugelsdijk, Sjoerd & Slangen, Arjen & Maseland, Robbert & Onrust, Marjolijn, 2014. "The impact of home–host cultural distance on foreign affiliate sales: The moderating role of cultural variation within host countries," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(8), pages 1638-1646.
    20. Pettersson, Jan, 2003. "Democracy, Consolidation and Growth," Research Papers in Economics 2002:16, Stockholm University, Department of Economics, revised 15 Dec 2004.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    research and development; economic growth; Bayesian model averaging.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2011_19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Natalie Svarcova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/icunicz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.