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Credit Risk in a Network Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Henry Schellhorn

    (University of Lausanne, FAME and IMD, Lausanne)

  • Didier Cossin

    (University of Lausanne, FAME and IMD, Lausanne)

Abstract

We develop a structural model of credit risk in a network economy. In particular, we are able to account for complex counterparty relationships,where one company may be indirectly affected by the credit risk of another company in the network. In this re-spect,we generalize Jarrow and Yu (2001)and Collin-Dufresne,Goldstein and Hugonnier (2003),but do so in the rich context of a structural form model. We provide closed form formulae for the price of risky debt and equity,which depend upon the lending/borrowing relationships in the economy. Our model applies to completely general lender/borrower relationships,including looping relationships. Our formulae can apply to cases where not only ?nancial ?ows but also operations are dependent across ?rms. In order to achieve these results,we use queueing theory. This paper thus represents one of the ?rst applications of queueing theory to ?nance.

Suggested Citation

  • Henry Schellhorn & Didier Cossin, 2004. "Credit Risk in a Network Economy," FAME Research Paper Series rp106, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    • Handle: RePEc:fam:rpseri:rp106
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    File URL: http://www.swissfinanceinstitute.ch/rp106.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Goldstein, Robert & Ju, Nengjiu & Leland, Hayne, 2001. "An EBIT-Based Model of Dynamic Capital Structure," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(4), pages 483-512, October.
    2. Mella-Barral, Pierre & Perraudin, William, 1997. "Strategic Debt Service," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 531-556, June.
    3. Robert A. Jarrow & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 17, pages 377-409, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    5. Opler, Tim & Pinkowitz, Lee & Stulz, Rene & Williamson, Rohan, 1999. "The determinants and implications of corporate cash holdings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 3-46, April.
    6. Laura E. Kodres & Matthew Pritsker, 2002. "A Rational Expectations Model of Financial Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 769-799, April.
    7. Mello, Antonio S & Parsons, John E, 2000. "Hedging and Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 127-153.
    8. Robert A. Jarrow & Fan Yu, 2008. "Counterparty Risk and the Pricing of Defaultable Securities," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 20, pages 481-515, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:1:p:19-40 is not listed on IDEAS
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    11. Robert A. Jarrow & Xing Jin & Dilip B. Madan, 1999. "The Second Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 255-273, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mizgier, Kamil J. & Wagner, Stephan M. & Holyst, Janusz A., 2012. "Modeling defaults of companies in multi-stage supply chain networks," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 14-23.
    2. Edirisinghe, Chanaka & Gupta, Aparna & Roth, Wendy, 2015. "Risk assessment based on the analysis of the impact of contagion flow," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 209-223.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit Risk; Capital Structure; Queueing Networks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions
    • C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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