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Impact of Population Aging on Japanese International Travel to 2025

Author

Listed:
  • James Mak

    (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii-Manoa)

  • Lonny Carlile

    (Asian Studies, University of Hawaii-Manoa)

  • Sally Dai

    (Research Program, East-West Center)

Abstract

In this paper we forecast Japanese international travel to 2025. In addition, to the usual economic variables, our model also captured both populations again and cohort effects on Japanese travel abroad. We predict the number of future Japanese overseas trips for males and females separately by five-year age groups and in five-year increments. We conclude that the Japanese will continue to travel abroad in increasing numbers but population aging will dramatically slow overall future Japanese overseas travel. While the number of "senior" travelers is predicted to increase sharply, we foresee fewer overseas trips taken by Japanese, especially among women, in the 20s and early 30s age groups. Finally, we examine the responses of the industry and the public sector in Japan to implications of a rapidly aging population on future international travel.

Suggested Citation

  • James Mak & Lonny Carlile & Sally Dai, 2004. "Impact of Population Aging on Japanese International Travel to 2025," Economics Study Area Working Papers 73, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:ewc:wpaper:wp73
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    1. David D. Li & Changqi Wu, 2004. "GATT/WTO Accession and Productivity," NBER Chapters, in: Growth and Productivity in East Asia, pages 109-148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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