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Expected sovereign defaults and fiscal consolidations

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  • Werner Roeger
  • Jan in 't Veld

Abstract

This paper uses a two region DSGE model for the Euro area (periphery vs. core), to analyse the costs of higher sovereign risk premia, the so called 'sovereign risk channel'. We highlight the importance of valuation effects of sovereign bonds in bank balance sheets for the transmission of sovereign default expectations to the private sector. While at the current juncture the fiscal multiplier is larger in the EA periphery, we show that for highly indebted countries in the EA no fiscal consolidation could have more detrimental effects if it leads to expectations of sovereign default. In our view these results provide useful additional information for the debate on fiscal austerity which focusses mainly on the size of the multiplier.

Suggested Citation

  • Werner Roeger & Jan in 't Veld, 2013. "Expected sovereign defaults and fiscal consolidations," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 479, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    • Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0479
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    Cited by:

    1. Jan in 't Veld, 2013. "Fiscal consolidations and spillovers in the Euro area periphery and core," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 506, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    2. Amélie Barbier‐Gauchard & Thierry Betti, 2021. "Spillover effects of fiscal policy in a monetary union: Why do fiscal instruments matter?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(1), pages 1-33, January.
    3. Perego, Erica R. & Vermeulen, Wessel N., 2016. "Macro-economic determinants of European stock and government bond correlations: A tale of two regions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 214-232.
    4. Schwarzmüller, Tim & Wolters, Maik H., 2014. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidation in dynamic general equilibrium," Kiel Working Papers 1963, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Nicolas Carnot & Stéphanie Pamies Sumner, 2017. "GDP-linked Bonds: Some Simulations on EU Countries," European Economy - Discussion Papers 073, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    6. George Economides & Dimitris Papageorgiou & Apostolis Philippopoulos, 2017. "The driving forces of the current Greek great depression," Working Papers 201703, Athens University Of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    7. Apostolis Philippopoulos & Petros Varthalitis & Vanghelis Vassilatos, 2017. "Fiscal Consolidation in an Open Economy with Sovereign Premia and without Monetary Policy Independence," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(4), pages 259-306, December.
    8. Papageorgiou, Dimitris & Vourvachaki, Evangelia, 2017. "Macroeconomic effects of structural reforms and fiscal consolidations: Trade-offs and complementarities," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 54-73.
    9. Dimitris Papageorgiou & Evangelia Vourvachaki, 2015. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Structural Reforms in Product and Labour Markets: Trade-Offs and Complementarities," Working Papers 197, Bank of Greece.
    10. Dimitris Papageorgiou, 2014. "BoGGEM: a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for policy simulations," Working Papers 182, Bank of Greece.
    11. Vaca Medina, Gustavo & Vaca, Jesús & Mora Pérez, César Omar, 2020. "The impact of public debt on economic growth: an empirical study of Mexico (1994–2016)," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    12. George Economides & Anastasio Xepapadeas, 2019. "The effects of climate change on a small open economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 7582, CESifo.
    13. Giuliana Passamani & Roberto Tamborini & Matteo Tomaselli, 2014. "Sustainability vs. credibility of fiscal consolidation. A Principal Components test for the Euro Zone," DEM Discussion Papers 2014/09, Department of Economics and Management.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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