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Quantifying the Economic Effects of the Single Market in a Structural Macromodel

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  • Jan in ‘t Veld

Abstract

This paper examines the macro-economic benefits of the Single Market in goods and services by simulating a counterfactual scenario in which tariffs and non-tariff barriers are reintroduced. Model simulations show how the reintroduction of trade barriers in such a counterfactual would lead to significantly lower trade flows between the Member States. Lower trade openness also means reduced market size and less competition. Using empirical evidence on the effect of the Single Market on firms’ mark-ups over marginal costs, we add these effects to the direct trade effects to come to a total estimate of the economic benefits of the Single Market of between 8% and 9% higher GDP on average for the EU.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan in ‘t Veld, 2019. "Quantifying the Economic Effects of the Single Market in a Structural Macromodel," European Economy - Discussion Papers 094, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    • Handle: RePEc:euf:dispap:094
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    Cited by:

    1. in ’t Veld, Jan, 2019. "The economic benefits of the EU Single Market in goods and services," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(5), pages 803-818.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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