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Geopolitical Risk and Corporate Behaviors: Propagation of shocks through global operations

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  • Huu Nhan DUONG
  • Jota ISHIKAWA
  • Katsumasa NISHIDE
  • S. Ghon RHEE

Abstract

This study examines the impact of geopolitical risk (hereafter GPR) on the behavior of multinational manufacturing firms from Japan. We construct firm-level exposures to GPR indices using data on foreign direct investment and international trade. We find that only large firms respond to GPR, whereas small firms exhibit no significant reaction. Furthermore, the effect of GPR on accounting-based decisions, such as cash holdings and investment, varies depending on firms’ modes of internationalization. In particular, the results indicate that firms exposed to GPR through FDI reduce asset-side variables, such as cash holdings and capital expenditures.

Suggested Citation

  • Huu Nhan DUONG & Jota ISHIKAWA & Katsumasa NISHIDE & S. Ghon RHEE, 2025. "Geopolitical Risk and Corporate Behaviors: Propagation of shocks through global operations," Discussion papers 25029, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:25029
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Nicholas Bloom & Mirko Draca & John Van Reenen, 2016. "Trade Induced Technical Change? The Impact of Chinese Imports on Innovation, IT and Productivity," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 83(1), pages 87-117.
    4. Kazuo Ogawa & Kazuyuki Suzuki, 2000. "Uncertainty and Investment: Some Evidence from the Panel Data of Japanese Manufacturing Firms," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 51(2), pages 170-192, June.
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