IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eti/dpaper/16046.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

DebtRank Analysis of Financial Distress Propagation on a Production Network in Japan

Author

Listed:
  • FUJIWARA Yoshi
  • TERAI Masaaki
  • FUJITA Yuji
  • SOUMA Wataru

Abstract

Supplier-customer relationship among firms in a production network is the arena where financial distress propagates from distressed debtors of customers to their creditors of suppliers. While the events of bankruptcies can be observed easily, the underlying contagion effect of financial distress can have considerable consequences such as a chain of bankruptcies. DebtRank is a model to quantify the propagation of financial distress, which has been applied recently for analyzing and evaluating systemic risk for interbank contagion. Because the production network in Japan, which comprises more than one million firms as nodes and millions of supplier-customer relationship as links, is much larger than the interbank credit network, it has been a formidable task to study the model of DebtRank on such a large-scale production network. This work studies the financial distress propagation on the real data of a production network by employing an implementation of DebtRank on a supercomputer. We found that the DebtRank of individual firms has a significant correlation with firm-size with non-linearity, indicating that the DebtRank for big firms becomes much larger than what is expected naively. The analysis for individual sectors shows that, depending on the sector's position in the upstream and downstream, its DebtRank deviates from a linear relationship between DebtRank and sector size. In addition, one can measure vulnerability by using the DebtRank analysis, which is potentially useful to identify the likelihood of failures of firms in more vulnerable sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • FUJIWARA Yoshi & TERAI Masaaki & FUJITA Yuji & SOUMA Wataru, 2016. "DebtRank Analysis of Financial Distress Propagation on a Production Network in Japan," Discussion papers 16046, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:16046
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/16e046.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. S Battiston & G di Iasio & L Infante & F Pierobon, 2015. "Capital and contagion in financial networks," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Indicators to support monetary and financial stability analysis: data sources and statistical methodologies, volume 39, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Takayuki Mizuno & Wataru Souma & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2014. "The Structure and Evolution of Buyer-Supplier Networks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(7), pages 1-10, July.
    3. Hazama, Makoto & Uesugi, Iichiro, 2017. "Measuring the systemic risk in interfirm transaction networks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 259-281.
    4. Y. Fujiwara & H. Aoyama, 2010. "Large-scale structure of a nation-wide production network," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 77(4), pages 565-580, October.
    5. Battiston, Stefano & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2007. "Credit chains and bankruptcy propagation in production networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 2061-2084, June.
    6. AOYAMA Hideaki & Stefano BATTISTON & FUJIWARA Yoshi, 2013. "DebtRank Analysis of the Japanese Credit Network," Discussion papers 13087, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    7. Takayuki Mizuno & Wataru Souma & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2014. "The Structure and Evolution of Buyer-Supplier Networks," CARF F-Series CARF-F-339, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    8. Benjamin M. Tabak & Sergio R. S. Souza & Solange M. Guerra, 2013. "Assessing Systemic Risk in the Brazilian Interbank Market," Working Papers Series 318, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    9. Marco Bardoscia & Stefano Battiston & Fabio Caccioli & Guido Caldarelli, 2015. "DebtRank: A Microscopic Foundation for Shock Propagation," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(6), pages 1-13, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chakraborty, Abhijit & Krichene, Hazem & Inoue, Hiroyasu & Fujiwara, Yoshi, 2019. "Characterization of the community structure in a large-scale production network in Japan," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 513(C), pages 210-221.
    2. Takayuki Mizuno & Takaaki Ohnishi & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2015. "Structure of global buyer-supplier networks and its implications for conflict minerals regulations," Papers 1505.02274, arXiv.org.
    3. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda & Guerra, Solange Maria, 2017. "Why do vulnerability cycles matter in financial networks?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 471(C), pages 592-606.
    4. Takayuki Mizuno & Takaaki Ohnishi & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2015. "Structure of global buyer-supplier networks and its implications for conflict minerals regulations," CARF F-Series CARF-F-362, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    5. Battiston Stefano & Caldarelli Guido & D’Errico Marco & Gurciullo Stefano, 2016. "Leveraging the network: A stress-test framework based on DebtRank," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 33(3-4), pages 117-138, December.
    6. Hayato Goto & Hideki Takayasu & Misako Takayasu, 2017. "Estimating risk propagation between interacting firms on inter-firm complex network," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(10), pages 1-12, October.
    7. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Alexandre, Michel da Silva & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2018. "Bank lending and systemic risk: A financial-real sector network approach with feedback," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 98-118.
    8. Thiago Christiano Silva & Michel Alexandre da Silva & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2016. "Modeling Financial Networks: a feedback approach," Working Papers Series 438, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    9. Leonidov, Andrey & Serebryannikova, Ekaterina, 2019. "Dynamical topology of highly aggregated input–output networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 518(C), pages 234-252.
    10. Takayuki Mizuno & Takaaki Ohnishi & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2015. "Structure of global buyer-supplier networks and its implications for conflict minerals regulations," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 053, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    11. Atushi Ishikawa & Shouji Fujimoto & Takayuki Mizuno & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2016. "Long-term firm growth properties derived from short-term laws of sales and number of employees in Japan and France," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 409-422, December.
    12. MIZUNO Takayuki & SOUMA Wataru & WATANABE Tsutomu, 2015. "Buyer-Supplier Networks and Aggregate Volatility," Discussion papers 15056, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    13. Hazem Krichene & Abhijit Chakraborty & Hiroyasu Inoue & Yoshi Fujiwara, 2017. "Business cycles’ correlation and systemic risk of the Japanese supplier-customer network," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(10), pages 1-22, October.
    14. Abhijit Chakraborty & Tobias Reisch & Christian Diem & Pablo Astudillo-Estévez & Stefan Thurner, 2024. "Inequality in economic shock exposures across the global firm-level supply network," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-8, December.
    15. Mundt, Philipp, 2021. "The formation of input–output architecture: Evidence from the European Union," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 89-104.
    16. Marco Bardoscia & Fabio Caccioli & Juan Ignacio Perotti & Gianna Vivaldo & Guido Caldarelli, 2016. "Distress Propagation in Complex Networks: The Case of Non-Linear DebtRank," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(10), pages 1-12, October.
    17. Affinito, Massimiliano & Franco Pozzolo, Alberto, 2017. "The interbank network across the global financial crisis: Evidence from Italy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 90-107.
    18. Charles D. Brummitt & Kenan Huremović & Paolo Pin & Matthew H. Bonds & Fernando Vega-Redondo, 2017. "Contagious disruptions and complexity traps in economic development," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 1(9), pages 665-672, September.
    19. Inoue, Hiroyasu & Todo, Yasuyuki, 2017. "Firm-level simulation of supply chain disruption triggered by actual and predicted earthquakes," MPRA Paper 82920, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Feb 2017.
    20. Henriet, Fanny & Hallegatte, Stéphane & Tabourier, Lionel, 2012. "Firm-network characteristics and economic robustness to natural disasters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 150-167.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:16046. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: TANIMOTO, Toko (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rietijp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.