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Monsoon 2013: Estimating the Impact on Agriculture

Author

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  • Ashok Gulati
  • Shweta Saini
  • Surbhi jain

Abstract

This paper attempts to project the likely impact of robust monsoon rains of 2013 on the Agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in India. The model hypothesizes that the performance of agriculture in India depends upon (1) investments in agriculture (private and public); (2) agricultural price incentives; and (3) rainfall. A log-linear model fitted over 1996-97 to 2012-13 period can explain 95 percent of the variations in agri-GDP with all variables being statistically significant. The model also forecasts that the agri-GDP growth rate for the agricultural year (July-June) 2013-14 is likely to be between 5.2% and 5.7%. [ICRIER working paper No. 269]

Suggested Citation

  • Ashok Gulati & Shweta Saini & Surbhi jain, 2013. "Monsoon 2013: Estimating the Impact on Agriculture," Working Papers id:5608, eSocialSciences.
    • Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:5608
    Note: Institutional Papers
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Debasis Mithiya & Kumarjit Mandal & Simanti Bandyopadhyay, 2020. "Time Series Analysis and Forecasting of Rainfall for Agricultural Crops in India: An Application of Artificial Neural Network," Research in Applied Economics, Macrothink Institute, vol. 12(4), pages 1-21, December.
    2. Shweta Saini & Ashok Gulati, 2017. "Price Distortions in Indian Agriculture," Working Papers id:12042, eSocialSciences.
    3. Vincent CAUPIN & Stéphanie PAMIES-SUMNER, 2017. "The challenges of India‘s economic policy," Working Paper bda91b64-2f19-4f87-bd32-1, Agence française de développement.
    4. Ashima Goyal & Akash Kumar Baikar, 2014. "Psychology, cyclicality or social programs: Rural wage and inflation dynamics in India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2014-014, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    5. Hardeep Singh Amale & Pratap Singh Birthal & Digvijay Singh Negi, 2023. "Delayed monsoon, irrigation and crop yields," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 54(1), pages 77-94, January.
    6. Jayaraman, T. & Murari, Kamal, 2014. "Climate Change and Agriculture: Current and Future Trends, and Implications for India," Review of Agrarian Studies, Foundation for Agrarian Studies, vol. 4(1), July.

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