IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/esr/wpaper/wp510.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions from Electricity: The Influence of The North Atlantic Oscillation

Author

Listed:
  • Curtis, John
  • Lynch, Muireann Á.
  • Zubiate, Laura

Abstract

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a large-scale circulation pattern driving climate variability in north-western Europe. In recent years there has been an increasing deployment of wind-powered generation technology, i.e. wind farms, on electricity networks across Europe. As this deployment increases it is important to understand how climate variability will affect both wind powered and non-renewable power generation. This study extends the literature by assessing the impact of NAO, via wind-power generation, on carbon dioxide emissions from the wider electricity system. A Monte Carlo approach is used to model NAO phases, generate hourly wind speed time series data, electricity demand and fuel input data. A unit commitment, least-cost economic dispatch model is used to simulate an entire electricity system, modelled on the all-island Irish electricity system. Our results confirm that the NAO has a significant impact on monthly mean wind speeds, wind power output, and carbon dioxide emissions from the entire electricity system. The impact of NAO on emissions obviously depends on the level of wind penetration within an electricity system but our results indicate that emissions intensity within the Irish electricity system could vary by as much as 10% depending on the NAO phase within the next few years. The emissions intensity of the electricity system will vary with the NAO phase.

Suggested Citation

  • Curtis, John & Lynch, Muireann Á. & Zubiate, Laura, 2015. "Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions from Electricity: The Influence of The North Atlantic Oscillation," Papers WP510, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp510
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.esri.ie/pubs/WP510.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pereira, Sérgio & Ferreira, Paula & Vaz, A.I.F., 2014. "Short-term electricity planning with increase wind capacity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 12-22.
    2. Lynch, Muireann Á. & Shortt, Aonghus & Tol, Richard S.J. & O'Malley, Mark J., 2013. "Risk–return incentives in liberalised electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 598-608.
    3. Di Cosmo, Valeria & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura, 2014. "The incentive to invest in thermal plants in the presence of wind generation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 306-315.
    4. Amor, Mourad Ben & Billette de Villemeur, Etienne & Pellat, Marie & Pineau, Pierre-Olivier, 2014. "Influence of wind power on hourly electricity prices and GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions: Evidence that congestion matters from Ontario zonal data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 458-469.
    5. Daniel T. Kaffine & Brannin J. McBee & Jozef Lieskovsky, 2013. "Emissions Savings from Wind Power Generation in Texas," The Energy Journal, , vol. 34(1), pages 155-176, January.
    6. McInerney, Celine & Bunn, Derek, 2013. "Valuation anomalies for interconnector transmission rights," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 565-578.
    7. Carapellucci, Roberto & Giordano, Lorena, 2013. "A methodology for the synthetic generation of hourly wind speed time series based on some known aggregate input data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 541-550.
    8. Brayshaw, David James & Troccoli, Alberto & Fordham, Rachael & Methven, John, 2011. "The impact of large scale atmospheric circulation patterns on wind power generation and its potential predictability: A case study over the UK," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2087-2096.
    9. Adriaan Weijde & Benjamin Hobbs, 2011. "Locational-based coupling of electricity markets: benefits from coordinating unit commitment and balancing markets," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 223-251, June.
    10. Traber, Thure & Kemfert, Claudia, 2011. "Gone with the wind? -- Electricity market prices and incentives to invest in thermal power plants under increasing wind energy supply," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 249-256, March.
    11. Clancy, J.M. & Gaffney, F. & Deane, J.P. & Curtis, J. & Ó Gallachóir, B.P., 2015. "Fossil fuel and CO2 emissions savings on a high renewable electricity system – A single year case study for Ireland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 151-164.
    12. Amor, Mourad Ben & Billette de Villemeur, Etienne & Pellat, Marie & Pineau, Pierre-Olivier, 2014. "Influence of wind power on hourly electricity prices and GHG emissions: Evidence that congestion matters from Ontario zonal data," MPRA Paper 53630, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Joseph Cullen, 2013. "Measuring the Environmental Benefits of Wind-Generated Electricity," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 107-133, November.
    14. Paul Deane, John FitzGerald, Laura Malaguzzi Valeri, Aidan Tuohy and Darragh Walsh, 2015. "Irish and British electricity prices: what recent history implies for future prices," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    15. Wheatley, Joseph, 2013. "Quantifying CO2 savings from wind power," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 89-96.
    16. Troy, Niamh & Denny, Eleanor & O'Malley, Mark, 2010. "Base-load cycling on a system with significant wind penetration," MPRA Paper 34848, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Commin, Andrew N. & French, Andrew S. & Marasco, Matteo & Loxton, Jennifer & Gibb, Stuart W. & McClatchey, John, 2017. "The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on diverse renewable generation in Scotland," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 855-867.
    2. Curtis, John & Lynch, Muireann Á. & Zubiate, Laura, 2016. "The impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on electricity markets: A case study on Ireland," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 186-198.
    3. Hong, Taehoon & Jeong, Kwangbok & Koo, Choongwan, 2018. "An optimized gene expression programming model for forecasting the national CO2 emissions in 2030 using the metaheuristic algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 808-820.
    4. Cradden, Lucy C. & McDermott, Frank & Zubiate, Laura & Sweeney, Conor & O'Malley, Mark, 2017. "A 34-year simulation of wind generation potential for Ireland and the impact of large-scale atmospheric pressure patterns," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 165-176.
    5. Plaga, Leonie Sara & Bertsch, Valentin, 2023. "Methods for assessing climate uncertainty in energy system models — A systematic literature review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    6. Slednev, Viktor & Bertsch, Valentin & Ruppert, Manuel & Fichtner, Wolf, 2017. "Highly resolved optimal renewable allocation planning in power systems under consideration of dynamic grid topology," MPRA Paper 79706, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Zhou, Kaile & Yang, Shanlin & Shao, Zhen, 2016. "Energy Internet: The business perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 212-222.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Curtis, John & Lynch, Muireann Á. & Zubiate, Laura, 2016. "The impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on electricity markets: A case study on Ireland," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 186-198.
    2. Lynch & John Curtis, 2016. "The effects of wind generation capacity on electricity prices and generation costs: a Monte Carlo analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 133-151, January.
    3. Valeria Di Cosmo & Laura Malaguzzi Valeri, 2018. "How Much Does Wind Power Reduce $$\text {CO}_{2}$$ CO 2 Emissions? Evidence from the Irish Single Electricity Market," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 71(3), pages 645-669, November.
    4. Oliveira, Tiago & Varum, Celeste & Botelho, Anabela, 2019. "Wind power and CO2 emissions in the Irish market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 48-58.
    5. Oliveira, Tiago & Varum, Celeste & Botelho, Anabela, 2019. "Econometric modeling of CO2 emissions abatement: Comparing alternative approaches," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 310-322.
    6. Harrison Fell & Daniel T. Kaffine, 2014. "A one-two punch: Joint effects of natural gas abundance and renewables on coal-fired power plants," Working Papers 2014-10, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
    7. Malaguzzi-Valeri, Laura & di Cosmo, Valeria, 2014. "The Effect of Wind on Electricity CO2 Emissions: The Case of Ireland," Papers WP493, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    8. Clancy, J.M. & Gaffney, F. & Deane, J.P. & Curtis, J. & Ó Gallachóir, B.P., 2015. "Fossil fuel and CO2 emissions savings on a high renewable electricity system – A single year case study for Ireland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 151-164.
    9. Daví-Arderius, Daniel & Sanin, María-Eugenia & Trujillo-Baute, Elisa, 2017. "CO2 content of electricity losses," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 439-445.
    10. Di Cosmo, Valeria & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura, 2018. "Wind, storage, interconnection and the cost of electricity generation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1-18.
    11. Bahramian, Pejman & Jenkins, Glenn P. & Milne, Frank, 2021. "The displacement impacts of wind power electricity generation: Costly lessons from Ontario," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    12. Bent Jesper Christensen & Nabanita Datta Gupta & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2021. "Measuring the impact of clean energy production on CO2 abatement in Denmark: Upper bound estimation and forecasting," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 184(1), pages 118-149, January.
    13. Curtis, John & Devitt, Niamh & di Cosmo, Valeria & Farrell, Niall & FitzGerald, John & Hyland, Marie & Lynch, Muireann & Lyons, Sean & McCoy, Daire & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura & Walsh, Darragh, 2014. "Irish Energy Policy: An Analysis of Current Issues," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number rs37 edited by FitzGerald, John & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura.
    14. Carlini, Federico & Christensen, Bent Jesper & Datta Gupta, Nabanita & Santucci de Magistris, Paolo, 2023. "Climate, wind energy, and CO2 emissions from energy production in Denmark," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    15. Morales-España, Germán & Nycander, Elis & Sijm, Jos, 2021. "Reducing CO2 emissions by curtailing renewables: Examples from optimal power system operation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    16. Fell, Harrison & Kaffine, Daniel T., 2014. "A one-two punch: Joint eects of natural gas abundance and renewables on coal-red power plants," CEnREP Working Papers 340063, North Carolina State University, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    17. Abrell, Jan & Kosch, Mirjam & Rausch, Sebastian, 2019. "Carbon abatement with renewables: Evaluating wind and solar subsidies in Germany and Spain," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 172-202.
    18. Cullen, Joseph A. & Reynolds, Stanley S., 2023. "Market dynamics and investment in the electricity sector," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    19. Gaffney, F. & Deane, J.P. & Gallachóir, B.P.Ó, 2017. "A 100 year review of electricity policy in Ireland (1916–2015)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 67-79.
    20. Zerrahn, Alexander, 2017. "Wind Power and Externalities," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 245-260.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp510. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sarah Burns (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/esriiie.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.