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Schelling's Conjecture on Climate and Development: A Test

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  • Anthoff, David
  • Tol, Richard S. J.

Abstract

We use the integrated assessment model FUND to compute the income elasticities of climate change impacts for different world regions over time. We find limited support for Schelling's Conjecture that development might be the best defense against climate change impacts, and for the idea that the impacts from climate change might be akin to a "luxury good". For very poor regions, an increase in income in the short run is an effective tool to reduce impacts from climate change by making those societies less vulnerable, in particular to infectious diseases. While net climate impacts appear to be akin to a luxury good for some countries at specific times, that effect disappears in the long run as impacts from agriculture make up a large share of total impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Anthoff, David & Tol, Richard S. J., 2011. "Schelling's Conjecture on Climate and Development: A Test," Papers WP390, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp390
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    9. Richard Tol, 2007. "The double trade-off between adaptation and mitigation for sea level rise: an application of FUND," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 12(5), pages 741-753, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Konrad, Kai A. & Thum, Marcel, 2012. "The role of economic policy in climate change adaptation," EIB Working Papers 2012/02, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    2. Aronsson, Thomas & Schöb, Ronnie, 2018. "Climate change and psychological adaptation: A behavioral environmental economics approach," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 79-84.

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    income elasticity/Climate change/impacts;

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