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Quantifying the Beauty Contest: Density Inflation-Forecasts of Professional Japanese Forecasters

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  • TAKEDA Yosuke

Abstract

The paper aims at quantifying the higher-order expectations that Keynes (1936) compared to the beauty contest, applying a measure of relative entropy to the Japanese ESP Forecast Survey data during the deflationary period. We conclude that during the deflationary period from June 2009 to April 2010 and from April 2010 to February 2011, professional Japanese forecasters faced the Keynesian beauty contest, in which average expectations dominate agents’ expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • TAKEDA Yosuke, 2014. "Quantifying the Beauty Contest: Density Inflation-Forecasts of Professional Japanese Forecasters," ESRI Discussion paper series 309, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:esj:esridp:309
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    File URL: http://www.esri.go.jp/jp/archive/e_dis/e_dis309/e_dis309.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    2. Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-883, November.
    3. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
    4. Diebold, Francis X & West, Kenneth D, 1998. "Symposium on Forecasting and Empirical Methods in Macroeconomics and Finance: Editors' Introduction," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 811-815, November.
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