Population Dynamics and Carbon Emissions in the Arab Region: An Extended Stirpat II Model

Many Arab countries have been developing at a fast pace in the past 20 years and this is now seen as putting considerable pressure on the natural environment through population growth, ecosystem stress and resource extraction. The potential for climate change arising from increasing carbon dioxide emissions threatens the likelihood of a more sustainable development model being achieved in many of these countries. The paper deals with Arab countries’ population-environment nexus with respect to climate change interactions. The paper adopts the STIRPAT II model, which measures the influence of population, affluence and technology on the environment. The environmental impact is measured through carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The version of the model is extended in the paper to include specific elements that, a priori, can be expected to be of particular relevance to these countries. These include Governance indicators, energy consumption and energy production indices. The results supports the endogeneity of Governance as well as Arab countries need effective governments to minimize carbon emissions.