IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/erg/wpaper/661.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Performance: Evidence Before and After the Financial Crisis in Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Nergiz Dinçer
  • Magda Kandil
  • Mohamed Trabelsi

    (Dubai Economic Council, UAE)

Abstract

The paper sheds light on the Turkish experience of capital account liberalization and its effect on key macroeconomic variables, using quarterly data in a multivariate autoregressive vector (VAR) model. We also take into consideration the crisis breakpoint in 2001 and estimate the effect of shocks attributed to capital flows, using quarterly data during the sub-periods 1989:01–2001:01 and 2001:02–2009:03. The findings indicate that capital flows have varying effects on the Turkish economy before and after the crisis in 2001 and the evidence supports significant effects of freeing financial flows on macroeconomic performance, especially during the post-crisis period (2001:02–2009:03). Specifically, this latter period exhibited less money growth and inflationary pressures, reflecting better management of public finances, which helped to stem the appreciation of the real exchange rate and preserve export competitiveness. Finally, there is significant evidence of sterilization policy that has aimed to curtail the effects of capital inflows on the exchange rate and domestic liquidity.

Suggested Citation

  • Nergiz Dinçer & Magda Kandil & Mohamed Trabelsi, 2011. "On Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Performance: Evidence Before and After the Financial Crisis in Turkey," Working Papers 661, Economic Research Forum, revised 12 Jan 2011.
  • Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:661
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://erf.org.eg/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/661.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://bit.ly/2lHn0HY
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1998. "The Global Capital Market: Benefactor or Menace?," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt3kn3n2s8, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 123-139, Spring.
    3. Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2000. "Capital Market Liberalization, Economic Growth, and Instability," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1075-1086, June.
    4. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
    5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    6. Maurice Obstfeld, 1998. "The Global Capital Market: Benefactor or Menace?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 9-30, Fall.
    7. Sebastian Edwards, 2001. "Capital Mobility and Economic Performance: Are Emerging Economies Different?," NBER Working Papers 8076, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Vittorio Grilli & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 1995. "Economic Effects and Structural Determinants of Capital Controls," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(3), pages 517-551, September.
    9. Kenneth Rogoff, 1999. "International Institutions for Reducing Global Financial Instability," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 21-42, Fall.
    10. Carlos Arteta & Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 2001. "When Does Capital Account Liberalization Help More than It Hurts?," NBER Working Papers 8414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Peter Blair Henry, 2003. "Capital-Account Liberalization, the Cost of Capital, and Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 91-96, May.
    12. World Bank, 2010. "World Development Indicators 2010," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 4373.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2015:i:145 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Ajisafe Rufus Adebayo & Okunade Solomon Oluwaseun, 2020. "International Capital Inflow and Sub-Saharan African Economy: Does Capital Inflow Lead Growth?," Growth, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 7(1), pages 26-34.
    3. Abdullahil Mamun & Harun Bal & Shahanara Basher & Md Mahi Uddin & Nazamul Hoque, 2023. "Growth Effects Of Currency Misalignment And Capital Flight In Turkey," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 26(2), pages 221-250, May.
    4. Yener Cos‚kun & A. Sevtap Selcuk-Kestel & Bilgi Yilmaz, 2017. "Diversification benefit and return performance of REITs using CAPM and Fama-French: Evidence from Turkey," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 17(4), pages 199-215, December.
    5. Muhammad Imran & Abdul Rashid, 2023. "The Empirical Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment Episodes," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 15(3), pages 409-435, September.
    6. EZZAHID, Elhadj & MAOUHOUB, Brahim, 2015. "Capital account liberalization and Moroccan macroeconomic performances," MPRA Paper 67627, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peter Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Discussion Papers 07-004, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    2. Peter Blair Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 887-935, December.
    3. Winston Moore, 2014. "Managing The Process Of Removing Capital Controls: What Does The Literature Suggest?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 209-237, April.
    4. Md Arif-Ur-Rahman & Kazuo Inaba, 2020. "Financial integration and total factor productivity: in consideration of different capital controls and foreign direct investment," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-20, December.
    5. Yuan, Shenguo & Wu, Zhouheng, 2021. "Financial openness and Chinese regional growth imbalance: New insight from spatial spillovers," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    6. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    7. Pariwat Kanithasen & Vacharakoon Jivakanont & Charnon Boonnuch, 2011. "AEC 2015: Ambitions, Expectations and Challenges ASEAN's Path towards Greater Economic and Financial Integration," Working Papers 2011-03, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    8. Andrew van Hulten & Michael Webber, 2010. "Do developing countries need 'good' institutions and policies and deep financial markets to benefit from capital account liberalization?," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 283-319, March.
    9. Chari, Anusha & Blair Henry, Peter, 2008. "Firm-specific information and the efficiency of investment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 636-655, March.
    10. N. R. Bhanumurthy & Lokendra Kumawat, 2020. "Financial Globalization and Economic Growth in South Asia," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 21(1), pages 31-57, March.
    11. Anusha Chari & Peter Blair Henry, 2004. "Is the Invisible Hand Discerning or Indiscriminate? Investment and Stock Prices in the Aftermath of Capital Account Liberalizations," NBER Working Papers 10318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2018. "Taming the Tide of Capital Flows: A Policy Guide," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262037165, December.
    13. Ben Gamra, Saoussen, 2009. "Does financial liberalization matter for emerging East Asian economies growth? Some new evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 392-403, June.
    14. Bonfiglioli, Alessandra, 2008. "Financial integration, productivity and capital accumulation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 337-355, December.
    15. Simplice A Asongu & Lieven De Moor, 2017. "Financial Globalisation Dynamic Thresholds for Financial Development: Evidence from Africa," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 29(1), pages 192-212, January.
    16. Chari, Anusha & Henry, Peter Blair & Moussa, Racha, 2022. "Do finite horizons matter? The welfare consequences of capital account liberalization," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    17. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar S. & Terrones, Marco E., 2006. "How do trade and financial integration affect the relationship between growth and volatility?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 176-202, June.
    18. Komulainen, Tuomas, 2001. "Currency crises in emerging markets : Capital flows and herding behaviour," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    19. Chen, Jinzhao & Quang, Thérèse, 2014. "The impact of international financial integration on economic growth: New evidence on threshold effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 475-489.
    20. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 16125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G - Financial Economics
    • G - Financial Economics
    • O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:661. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sherine Ghoneim (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/erfaceg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.