IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/erg/wpaper/1256.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Optimal Government Size and Economic Growth in Developing and MENA Countries: A Dynamic Panel Threshold Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Ridha Nouira

    (Faculté des Sciences Économiques et de Gestion de Mahdia)

  • Mohamed Kouni

Abstract

This paper aims to investigate the optimal government size as well as its effect on economic growth in selected MENA and developing countries over the period from 1988 to 2016. We use the model of Chudik et al. (2017) in order to estimate public expenditures threshold and its effect on growth. The main finding of this study shows that there is a government expenditure threshold effects on economic growth for all panel groups. Indeed, the threshold is between 10-30 percent for whole sample, 20 and 30 percent for MENA countries and 10 and 20 percent for developing countries. It is also clear that this threshold effect is significantly greater for MENA countries. Moreover, we found evidence of a U-shaped relationship between government expenditure and economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Ridha Nouira & Mohamed Kouni, 2018. "Optimal Government Size and Economic Growth in Developing and MENA Countries: A Dynamic Panel Threshold Analysis," Working Papers 1256, Economic Research Forum, revised 15 Nov 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:1256
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://erf.org.eg/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/1256.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://bit.ly/2EA6CBi
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Caner, Mehmet & Hansen, Bruce E., 2004. "Instrumental Variable Estimation Of A Threshold Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(5), pages 813-843, October.
    2. Alexander Chudik & Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran & Mehdi Raissi, 2016. "Long-Run Effects in Large Heterogeneous Panel Data Models with Cross-Sectionally Correlated Errors," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of man Ullah, volume 36, pages 85-135, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    3. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    4. Alexander Chudik & Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran & Mehdi Raissi, 2017. "Is There a Debt-Threshold Effect on Output Growth?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(1), pages 135-150, March.
    5. John A. Tatom, 1991. "Public capital and private sector performance," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 3-15.
    6. Felice, Giulia, 2016. "Size and composition of public investment, sectoral composition and growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 136-158.
    7. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    8. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    9. João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte & Claude Berthomieu, 2005. "Le Rôle de la Consommation Publique dans la Croissance: le cas de l'Union Européenne," GEMF Working Papers 2005-05, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    10. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Swaroop, Vinaya & Heng-fu, Zou, 1996. "The composition of public expenditure and economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 313-344, April.
    11. Stephanie Kremer & Alexander Bick & Dieter Nautz, 2013. "Inflation and growth: new evidence from a dynamic panel threshold analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 861-878, April.
    12. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-254, April.
    13. Chudik, Alexander & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2015. "Common correlated effects estimation of heterogeneous dynamic panel data models with weakly exogenous regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(2), pages 393-420.
    14. João Sousa Andrade & Maria Adelaide Duarte & Claude Berthomieu, 2005. "Le Rôle de la Consommation Publique dans la Croissance: le cas de l'Union Européenne," Development and Comp Systems 0505005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Chen, Sheng-Tung & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2005. "Government size and economic growth in Taiwan: A threshold regression approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1051-1066, December.
    16. Seo, Myung Hwan & Shin, Yongcheol, 2016. "Dynamic panels with threshold effect and endogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 195(2), pages 169-186.
    17. Asimakopoulos, Stylianos & Karavias, Yiannis, 2016. "The impact of government size on economic growth: A threshold analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 65-68.
    18. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    19. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    20. William E. Cullison, 1993. "Public investment and economic growth," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 19-34.
    21. Zhang, Lifeng & Ru, Yucong & Li, Jingkui, 2016. "Optimal tax structure and public expenditure composition in a simple model of endogenous growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 352-360.
    22. repec:cep:stiecm:/2014/577 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Ventelou, Bruno & Bry, Xavier, 2006. "The role of public spending in economic growth: Envelopment methods," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 403-413, May.
    24. Song-Zan Chiou-Wei & Zhen Zhu & Yung-Hsing Kuo, 2010. "Government size and economic growth: an application of the smooth transition regression model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(14), pages 1405-1415.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Menescal, Lucas & Alves, José, 2024. "Optimal threshold taxation: An empirical investigation for developing economies," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    2. Megha Jain & Aishwarya Nagpal & Abhay Jain, 2021. "Government Size and Economic Growth: An Empirical Examination of Selected Emerging Economies," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 10(1), pages 7-39, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hajamini, Mehdi & Falahi, Mohammad Ali, 2018. "Economic growth and government size in developed European countries: A panel threshold approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-13.
    2. Megha Jain & Aishwarya Nagpal & Abhay Jain, 2021. "Government Size and Economic Growth: An Empirical Examination of Selected Emerging Economies," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 10(1), pages 7-39, June.
    3. Olaoye, Olumide O. & Eluwole, Oluwatosin O. & Ayesha, Aziz & Afolabi, Olugbenga O., 2020. "Government spending and economic growth in ECOWAS: An asymmetric analysis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    4. Asimakopoulos, Stylianos & Karavias, Yiannis, 2016. "The impact of government size on economic growth: A threshold analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 65-68.
    5. Andre Varella Mollick & Andre Coelho Vianna, 2024. "Economic growth before and after the fiscal stimulus of 2008–2009: the role of institutional quality and government size," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 198(1), pages 189-207, January.
    6. Chen, Chaoyi & Pinar, Mehmet & Stengos, Thanasis, 2021. "Determinants of renewable energy consumption: Importance of democratic institutions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 75-83.
    7. Gianni Carvelli, 2023. "The long-run effects of government expenditure on private investments: a panel CS-ARDL approach," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(3), pages 620-645, September.
    8. Osathanunkul, Rossarin & Dumrong, Pasinee & Yamaka, Woraphon & Maneejuk, Paravee, 2023. "The nonlinear impacts of aging labor and government health expenditures on productivity in ASEAN+3 economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 450-470.
    9. Akram, Vaseem & Rath, Badri Narayan, 2020. "Optimum government size and economic growth in case of Indian states: Evidence from panel threshold model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 151-162.
    10. Miao, Ke & Li, Kunpeng & Su, Liangjun, 2020. "Panel threshold models with interactive fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(1), pages 137-170.
    11. Zhu, Xiaoyang & Asimakopoulos, Stylianos & Kim, Jaebeom, 2020. "Financial development and innovation-led growth: Is too much finance better?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    12. Chen, Chaoyi & Pinar, Mehmet & Stengos, Thanasis, 2020. "Renewable energy consumption and economic growth nexus: Evidence from a threshold model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    13. Tenaw, Dagmawe, 2022. "Do traditional energy dependence, income, and education matter in the dynamic linkage between clean energy transition and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 204-213.
    14. Salwa Trabelsi, 2018. "Public Education Spending and Economic Growth: The Governance Threshold Effect," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 43(1), pages 101-124, March.
    15. Chen, Chaoyi & Polemis, Michael & Stengos, Thanasis, 2019. "Can exchange rate pass-through explain the asymmetric gasoline puzzle? Evidence from a pooled panel threshold analysis of the EU," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1-12.
    16. Ho Thuy Ai & Ping, Lin, 2018. "Impacts of fiscal policy on economic growth: Another look from institutional perspective," Economics Discussion Papers 2018-45, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    17. Delphine Lahet & Stéphanie Prat, 2023. "Local-currency debt and currency internationalization dynamics: A nonlinear framework," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(1), pages 215-254, February.
    18. Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru & Sawadogo, Pegdéwendé Nestor, 2021. "Does the composition of government spending matter for government bond spreads?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 409-420.
    19. Samargandi, Nahla & Fidrmuc, Jan & Ghosh, Sugata, 2015. "Is the Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth Monotonic? Evidence from a Sample of Middle-Income Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 66-81.
    20. Chung‐Hua Shen & Hsing‐Hua Hsu, 2022. "The determinants of Asian banking crises—Application of the panel threshold logit model," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 248-277, March.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:1256. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sherine Ghoneim (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/erfaceg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.