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Measuring Recovery: Aggregate Demand and the Slowdown of Brazilian Economic Growth from 2011-2014

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  • Franklin Serrano
  • Ricardo Summa

Abstract

This paper examines the sharp slowdown in the Brazilian economy for the years 2011-2014, in which economic growth averaged only 2.1 percent annually, as compared with 4.4 percent in the 2004-2010 period. The authors argue that the slowdown overwhelmingly results from a sharp decline in domestic demand led by government policy, rather than from a fall in exports and even less from any change in external financial conditions. It concludes that this decision to slow the economy was not necessary as there was no external constraint, such as a balance-of-payments problem, that warranted it.

Suggested Citation

  • Franklin Serrano & Ricardo Summa, 2015. "Measuring Recovery: Aggregate Demand and the Slowdown of Brazilian Economic Growth from 2011-2014," CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs 2015-19, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
    • Handle: RePEc:epo:papers:2015-19
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Campana, Juan Manuel & Emboava Vaz, João & Hein, Eckhard & Jungmann, Benjamin, 2022. "Demand and growth regimes of the BRICs countries," IPE Working Papers 197/2022, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    2. Julia Burle Gonçalves, 2018. "Distribuição De Renda E Demanda Agregada No Brasil(1995-2015): Uma Análise De Extensões Aos Modelos Neo-Kaleckianos Pelo Método Var," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 80, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    3. Iderley Colombini, 2020. "Form and Essence of Precarization by Work: From Alienation to the Industrial Reserve Army at the Turn of the Twenty-First Century," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 52(3), pages 409-426, September.
    4. Fatma Bouattour, 2020. "Measuring financial constraints of Brazilian industries: Rajan and Zingales index revisited," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(6), pages 677-710, August.
    5. Giuliano Russo & Maria Luiza Levi & Maria Teresa Seabra Soares de Britto e Alves & Bruno Luciano Carneiro Alves de Oliveira & Ruth Helena de Souza Britto Ferreira de Carvalho & Lucas Salvador Andriett, 2020. "How the ‘plates’ of a health system can shift, change and adjust during economic recessions: A qualitative interview study of public and private health providers in Brazil’s São Paulo and Maranhão sta," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(10), pages 1-20, October.
    6. Aguiar de Medeiros, Carlos & Trebat, Nicholas, 2016. "Latin America at a Crossroads: Controversies on Growth, Income Distribution and Structural Change," Centro Sraffa Working Papers CSWP22, Centro di Ricerche e Documentazione "Piero Sraffa".
    7. Eduardo Mantoan & Vinícius Centeno & Carmem Feijo, 2021. "Why has the Brazilian economy stagnated in the 2010s? A Minskyan analysis of the behavior of non-financial companies in a financialized economy," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 529-550, December.
    8. Grinis, Inna, 2017. "Trend growth durations & shifts," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 85126, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    brazil; growth; latin america; commodities boom; aggregate demand;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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