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Gains from Trade? The Net Effect of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement on U.S. Wages

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  • David Rosnick

Abstract

Recent estimates of the U.S. economic gains that would result from the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) are very small — only 0.13 percent of GDP by 2025. Taking into account the un-equalizing effect of trade on wages, this paper finds the median wage earner will probably lose as a result of any such agreement. In fact, most workers are likely to lose — the exceptions being some of the bottom quarter or so whose earnings are determined by the minimum wage; and those with the highest wages who are more protected from international competition. Rather, many top incomes will rise as a result of TPP expansion of the terms and enforcement of copyrights and patents. The long-term losses, going forward over the same period (to 2025), from the failure to restore full employment to the United States have been some 25 times greater than the potential gains of the TPP, and more than five times as large as the possible gains resulting from a much broader trade agenda.

Suggested Citation

  • David Rosnick, 2013. "Gains from Trade? The Net Effect of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement on U.S. Wages," CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs 2013-14, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
    • Handle: RePEc:epo:papers:2013-14
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    File URL: http://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/TPP-2013-09.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Rosnick & Dean Baker, 2012. "Missing the Story: The OECD's Analysis of Inequality," CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs 2012-19, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
    2. Peter A. Petri & Michael G. Plummer & Fan Zhai, 2012. "The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 6642, January.
    3. Petri, Peter A., 2012. "The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Integration," 2012: New Rules of Trade? December 2012, San Diego, California 143184, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
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    Cited by:

    1. David Rosnick, 2015. "The Gains from Trade in a New Model from the IMF: Still Very Small," CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs 2015-10, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade; trans-pacific partnership; TPP; jobs; GDP growth; wages; workers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • F - International Economics
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • J - Labor and Demographic Economics
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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