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Political Forecasting? The IMF's Flawed Growth Projections for Argentina and Venezuela

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  • David Rosnick
  • Mark Weisbrot

Abstract

This report examines the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) projections for economic growth for Argentina and Venezuela in recent years. It shows that the IMF consistently made large errors in overestimating Argentina's GDP growth for the years 2000, 2001 and 2002, during the country's 1998-2002 depression, and large underestimates for the years 2003-2006, as Argentina's economy grew rapidly. The paper also notes the IMF's repeated large errors in underestimating Venezuela's GDP growth for the years since 2004.

Suggested Citation

  • David Rosnick & Mark Weisbrot, 2007. "Political Forecasting? The IMF's Flawed Growth Projections for Argentina and Venezuela," CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs 2007-10, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
    • Handle: RePEc:epo:papers:2007-10
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    File URL: http://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/imf_forecasting_2007_04.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Chile: Staff Report for the 2005 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report for the 2005 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2005/315, International Monetary Fund.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2001. "Argentina: Second Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Augmentation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2001/026, International Monetary Fund.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Argentina: Staff Report for the 2005 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2005/236, International Monetary Fund.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Australia: Staff Report for the 2005 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2005/331, International Monetary Fund.
    5. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Ireland: Staff Report for the 2005 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2005/369, International Monetary Fund.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2003. "Argentina: Request for Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Extension of Repurchase Expectations," IMF Staff Country Reports 2003/392, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Roberto Frenkel & Martín Rapetti, 2007. "Argentina's Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies after the Convertibility Regime Collapse," CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs 2007-12, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
    8. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Guatemala: Staff Report for the 2005 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2005/362, International Monetary Fund.
    9. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Morocco: Staff Report for the 2005 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2005/418, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Mark Weisbrot, 2009. "CEPR Responds to the IMF’s Reply and Defense of Its Policies During the World Recession," CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs 2009-41, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
    2. Maswana, Jean-Claude, 2010. "The Global Financial Crisis and Recession," Working Papers 15, JICA Research Institute.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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