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The Macrodynamics of Debt Deflation

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Abstract

With the recent events of the large-scale financial crisis in some parts of the world and the slowly declining inflation rate in major OECD countries debt deflation has again become an important topic in economic research. In a model with debt issuing firms, financing their investment, we explore the interaction of high nominal levels of debt, output prices, increase in real debt and declining economic activity. This destabilizing mechanism is explored in the context of a small-scale as well as in a large-scale Keynesian demand constraint economy. In both models labor market dynamics are emphasized. Our principle conclusion is that the small-scale as well as the large-scale models are prone to accelerating downward instability caused by over-indebtedness and declining prices if the process is not stopped by floors to deflation by appropriate government policies. Moreover, contrary to conventional views flexible exchange rates may add to downward instability.

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  • Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Willi Semmler, 1999. "The Macrodynamics of Debt Deflation," SCEPA working paper series. 1999-04, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    • Handle: RePEc:epa:cepawp:1999-04
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    1. Chiarella,Carl & Flaschel,Peter, 2011. "The Dynamics of Keynesian Monetary Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521180184, September.
    2. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Gangolf Groh & Carsten Köper & Willi Semmler, 1999. "Towards Applied Disequilibrium Growth Theory: VII Intensive Form and Steady State Calculation in the Case of Substitution," Working Paper Series 99, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    3. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel, 1999. "Towards Applied Disequilibrium Growth Theory: II Intensive Form and Steady State Analysis of the Model," Working Paper Series 94, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    4. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Gangolf Groh & Carsten Köper & Willi Semmler, 1999. "Towards Applied Disequilibrium Growth Theory: VI Substitution, Money-Holdings, Wealth-Effects and Further Extensions," Working Paper Series 98, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    5. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel, 1999. "Towards Applied Disequilibrium Growth Theory: I The Starting Model," Working Paper Series 93, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    6. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Peiyuan Zhu, 2003. "Towards Applied Disequilibrium Growth Theory: IV Numerical Investigations of the Core 18D Model," Working Paper Series 96, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    7. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel, 1999. "Disequilibrium Growth Theory: Foundations, Synthesis, Perspectives," Working Paper Series 85, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    8. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel, 1999. "Towards Applied Disequilibrium Growth Theory: III Basic Partial Feedback Structures and Stability Issues," Working Paper Series 95, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    9. Willi Semmler & Levent Koçkesen, 2017. "Liquidity, Credit and Output: A Regime Change Model and Empirical Estimations," Working Papers 1730, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    10. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel, 1999. "Applying Disequilibrium Growth Theory: Debt Effects and Debt Deflation," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 714, Society for Computational Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gilberto Tadeu Lima & Antonio J. A. Meirelles, 2007. "Macrodynamics of debt regimes, financial instability and growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 31(4), pages 563-580, July.
    2. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2013. "Income distribution, credit and fiscal policies in an agent-based Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1598-1625.
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09j0h130d0n is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Soumya Datta, 2016. "Macrodynamics of debt-financed investment-led growth with interest rate rules," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(4), pages 593-624, October.
    5. Sébastien Charles, 2008. "Teaching Minsky's financial instability hypothesis: a manageable suggestion," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 125-138, September.
    6. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09j0h130d0n is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel, 2003. "Towards Applied Disequilibrium Growth Theory: V Housing Investment Cycles, Private Debt Accumulation and Deflation," Working Paper Series 97, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    8. Fazzari, Steven M. & Ferri, Piero & Greenberg, Edward, 2010. "Investment and the Taylor rule in a dynamic Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2010-2022, October.
    9. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09j0h130d0n is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Datta, Soumya, 2012. "Cycles and Crises in a Model of Debt-financed Investment-led Growth," MPRA Paper 50200, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Dec 2012.
    11. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09j0h130d0n is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Antonio Meirelles & Gilberto Lima, 2006. "Debt, financial fragility, and economic growth: a Post Keynesian macromodel," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 93-115.
    13. Piero Ferri & Anna Maria Variato, 2007. "Endogenous Cycles, Debt and Monetary Policy," Working Papers (-2012) 0703, University of Bergamo, Department of Economics.
    14. Fazzari, Steven & Ferri, Piero & Greenberg, Edward, 2008. "Cash flow, investment, and Keynes-Minsky cycles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 65(3-4), pages 555-572, March.

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