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Time Variation in Asset Return Dependence: Strength or Structure?

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  • Markwat, T.D.
  • Kole, H.J.W.G.
  • van Dijk, D.J.C.

Abstract

The dependence between asset returns varies. Its strength can become stronger or weaker. Also, its structure can change, for example, when asymmetries related to bull and bear markets become more or less pronounced. To analyze these different types of variations, we develop a model that separately accommodates these changes. It combines a mixture of structurally different copulas with time variation. Our model shows both types of changes in the dependence between several equity market returns. Ignoring them leads to biases in risk measures. An underestimation of Value-at-Risk by maximum 15% occurs exactly when most harmful, during crisis periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Markwat, T.D. & Kole, H.J.W.G. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2009. "Time Variation in Asset Return Dependence: Strength or Structure?," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2009-052-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureri:17096
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    Cited by:

    1. Małgorzata Doman & Ryszard Doman, 2013. "Dynamic linkages between stock markets: the effects of crises and globalization," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 12(2), pages 87-112, August.
    2. Hans Manner & Olga Reznikova, 2012. "A Survey on Time-Varying Copulas: Specification, Simulations, and Application," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 654-687, November.
    3. Gregor Weiß, 2013. "Copula-GARCH versus dynamic conditional correlation: an empirical study on VaR and ES forecasting accuracy," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 179-202, August.
    4. Weiß, Gregor N.F., 2011. "Are Copula-GoF-tests of any practical use? Empirical evidence for stocks, commodities and FX futures," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 173-188, May.
    5. Patton, Andrew J., 2012. "A review of copula models for economic time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 4-18.
    6. Fermanian, Jean-David & Wegkamp, Marten H., 2012. "Time-dependent copulas," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 19-29.
    7. Patton, Andrew, 2013. "Copula Methods for Forecasting Multivariate Time Series," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 899-960, Elsevier.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    copulas; dependence; international correlations; stock markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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