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Robust inference on average economic growth

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  • Boswijk, H.P.
  • Franses, Ph.H.B.F.

Abstract

We discuss a method to estimate the confidence bounds for average economic growth, which is robust to misspecification of the unit root property of a given time series. We derive asymptotic theory for the consequences of such misspecification. Our empirical method amounts to an implementation of the bootstrapping procedure advocated in Romano and Wolf (2001). Simulation evidence supports the theory and it also indicates the practical relevance of the bootstraping method. We use quarterly post-war US industrial production for illustration and we show that non-robust approaches lead to rather different conclusions on average economic growth than our robust approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Boswijk, H.P. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2001. "Robust inference on average economic growth," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2001-47, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:588
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    2. Boswijk, Peter, 1993. "On the Formulation of Wald Tests on Long-Run Parameters," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(1), pages 137-144, February.
    3. Romano, Joseph P & Wolf, Michael, 2001. "Subsampling Intervals in Autoregressive Models with Linear Time Trend," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(5), pages 1283-1314, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ke-Li Xu & Jui-Chung Yang, 2015. "Towards Uniformly Efficient Trend Estimation Under Weak/Strong Correlation and Non-stationary Volatility," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 42(1), pages 63-86, March.
    2. G. K. Randolph Tan, 2006. "Robust Inference for Measures of Persistence in Singapore Sectoral Property Price Indexes," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 305-321, October.

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