IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ems/eureir/10875.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Evaluation of survey effects in pre-election polls

Author

Listed:
  • Clarijs, P.
  • Hogeling, B.
  • Franses, Ph.H.B.F.
  • Heij, C.

Abstract

Pre-election polls can suffer from survey effects. For instance, individuals taking part in the poll may become more aware of the upcoming election so that they become more inclined to vote. Such effects cause biases in forecasted outcomes of elections. We propose a simple methodology that takes such survey effects explicitly into account when translating poll results into election outcomes. By collecting data both before and after the election, the survey effects can be estimated and used as correction factors in later polls. We illustrate our method by means of a field study with data collected before and after the 2007 regional elections (for `Provincial States') in the Netherlands. Our study provides empirical evidence of significant positive survey effects with respect to voter participation, and this effect is the largest for left-wing voters. That is, surveys seem to motivate left-wing people who otherwise would not have participated in the elections. This means that both the voter turnout and the number of seats going to left-wing parties may be overestimated by pre-election polls that do not correct for survey effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Clarijs, P. & Hogeling, B. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Heij, C., 2007. "Evaluation of survey effects in pre-election polls," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2007-50, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:10875
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repub.eur.nl/pub/10875/ei2007-50.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Franses,Philip Hans & Paap,Richard, 2010. "Quantitative Models in Marketing Research," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521143653, October.
    2. Rivers, Douglas & Vuong, Quang H., 1988. "Limited information estimators and exogeneity tests for simultaneous probit models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 347-366, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christiaan Heij & Philip Hans Franses, 2011. "Correcting for survey effects in pre‐election polls," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 65(3), pages 352-370, August.
    2. Risselada, Hans & Verhoef, Peter C. & Bijmolt, Tammo H.A., 2010. "Staying Power of Churn Prediction Models," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 198-208.
    3. Aysit Tansel & Halil Ibrahim Keskin, 2017. "Education Effects on Days Hospitalized and Days out of Work by Gender: Evidence from Turkey," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1721, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    4. Daron Acemoglu & Philippe Aghion & Claire Lelarge & John Van Reenen & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2007. "Technology, Information, and the Decentralization of the Firm," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(4), pages 1759-1799.
    5. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2008. "Crises in Emerging Markets Economies: A Global Perspective," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt- (ed.),Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 3, pages 085-115, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda, 2012. "Targeted Subsidies and Private Market Participation: An Assessment of Fertilizer Demand in Nigeria:," IFPRI discussion papers 1194, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Shilpi, Forhad & Umali-Deininger, Dina, 2007. "Where to sell ? market facilities and agricultural marketing," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4455, The World Bank.
    8. Polo, Yolanda & Sese, F. Javier & Verhoef, Peter C., 2011. "The Effect of Pricing and Advertising on Customer Retention in a Liberalizing Market," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 201-214.
    9. Jinhyun Lee, 2013. "A Consistent Nonparametric Bootstrap Test of Exogeneity," Discussion Paper Series, School of Economics and Finance 201316, School of Economics and Finance, University of St Andrews.
    10. Nikolov, Plamen & Adelman, Alan, 2019. "Do private household transfers to the elderly respond to public pension benefits? Evidence from rural China," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 14(C).
    11. Jean-Pierre Lachaud, 2007. "Les déterminants de l'inactivité économique et de la non-scolarisation des enfants aux Comores et à Madagascar. Existe-t-il une courbe de Kuznets ?," Documents de travail 140, Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
    12. Lurkin, Virginie & Garrow, Laurie A. & Higgins, Matthew J. & Newman, Jeffrey P. & Schyns, Michael, 2017. "Accounting for price endogeneity in airline itinerary choice models: An application to Continental U.S. markets," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 228-246.
    13. Anthony T. Lo Sasso & Bruce D. Meyer, 2006. "The Health Care Safety Net and Crowd-Out of Private Health Insurance," NBER Working Papers 11977, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Joseph G. Altonji & Rosa L. Matzkin, 2001. "Panel Data Estimators for Nonseparable Models with Endogenous Regressors," NBER Technical Working Papers 0267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Lo Turco, Alessia & Maggioni, Daniela, 2018. "Effects of Islamic religiosity on bilateral trust in trade: The case of Turkish exports," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 947-965.
    16. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
    17. Caroline Krafft, 2020. "Why is fertility on the rise in Egypt? The role of women’s employment opportunities," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 1173-1218, October.
    18. Céline Nauges & Jon Strand, 2017. "Water Hauling and Girls’ School Attendance: Some New Evidence from Ghana," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 66(1), pages 65-88, January.
    19. Edwin Van Gameren & Michiel Ras & Evelien Eggink & Ingrid Ooms, 2005. "The demand for housing services in the Netherlands," ERSA conference papers ersa05p327, European Regional Science Association.
    20. Gopalakrishnan, Raja & Guevara, C. Angelo & Ben-Akiva, Moshe, 2020. "Combining multiple imputation and control function methods to deal with missing data and endogeneity in discrete-choice models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 45-57.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:10875. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: RePub (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feeurnl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.