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Inference on nonstationary time series with moving mean

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  • Gao, Jiti
  • Robinson, Peter M.

Abstract

A semiparametric model is proposed in which a parametric filtering of a nonstationary time series, incorporating fractionally differencing with short memory correction, removes correlation but leaves a nonparametric deterministic trend. Estimates of the memory parameter and other dependence parameters are proposed, and shown to be consistent and asymptotically normally distributed with parametric rate. Tests with standard asymptotics for I(1) and other hypotheses are thereby justified. Estimation of the trend function is also considered. We include a Monte Carlo study of finite-sample performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Gao, Jiti & Robinson, Peter M., 2014. "Inference on nonstationary time series with moving mean," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 66509, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:66509
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/66509/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2007. "Transition Modeling and Econometric Convergence Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1771-1855, November.
    2. Cătălin Stărică & Clive Granger, 2005. "Nonstationarities in Stock Returns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 503-522, August.
    3. Zhibiao Zhao & Yiyun Zhang & Runze Li, 2014. "Non-Parametric Estimation Under Strong Dependence," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 4-15, January.
    4. Jan Beran & Yuanhua Feng, 2002. "Local Polynomial Fitting with Long-Memory, Short-Memory and Antipersistent Errors," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 54(2), pages 291-311, June.
    5. Roussas, George G. & Tran, Lanh T. & Ioannides, D. A., 1992. "Fixed design regression for time series: Asymptotic normality," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 262-291, February.
    6. Phillips, Peter C.B., 2007. "Regression With Slowly Varying Regressors And Nonlinear Trends," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 557-614, August.
    7. Deo, R. S., 1997. "Nonparametric regression with long-memory errors," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 89-94, April.
    8. Robinson, Peter M., 2012. "Nonparametric trending regression with cross-sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(1), pages 4-14.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yunus Emre Ergemen, 2016. "Generalized Efficient Inference on Factor Models with Long-Range Dependence," CREATES Research Papers 2016-05, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.

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    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics

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