IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ehl/lserod/60954.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Credit risk spillovers, systemic importance and vulnerability in financial networks

Author

Listed:
  • Grinis, Inna

Abstract

How does the change in the creditworthiness of a financial institution or sovereign impact its creditors’ solvency? I address this question in the context of the recent European sovereign debt crisis. Considering the network of Eurozone member states, interlinked through investment cross-holdings, I model default as a multi-stage disease with each credit-rating corresponding to a new infection phase, then derive systemic importance and vulnerability indicators in the presence of financial contagion, triggered by the change in the creditworthiness of a network member. I further extend the model to analyse not only negative, but also positive credit risk spillovers.

Suggested Citation

  • Grinis, Inna, 2015. "Credit risk spillovers, systemic importance and vulnerability in financial networks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 60954, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:60954
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/60954/
    File Function: Open access version.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kaminsky, Graciela L & Reinhart, Carmen M, 1998. "Financial Crises in Asia and Latin America: Then and Now," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 444-448, May.
    2. Matthew Elliott & Benjamin Golub & Matthew O. Jackson, 2014. "Financial Networks and Contagion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(10), pages 3115-3153, October.
    3. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Win), pages 14-23.
    4. Paolo Pesenti & Cédric Tille, 2000. "The economics of currency crises and contagion: an introduction," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 3-16.
    5. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Antoaneta Serguieva & Hao Wu, 2009. "Financial contagion: evolutionary optimization of a multinational agent‐based model," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1‐2), pages 111-125, January.
    6. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Marco A. Espinosa‐Vega & Juan Solé, 2011. "Cross‐border financial surveillance: a network perspective," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 3(3), pages 182-205, August.
    8. Robert M. May & Simon A. Levin & George Sugihara, 2008. "Ecology for bankers," Nature, Nature, vol. 451(7181), pages 893-894, February.
    9. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "Paper tigers?: A model of the Asian crisis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1211-1236, June.
    10. Stella Cheung, 1996. "Provincial Credit Rating in Canada: An Ordered Probit Analysis," Staff Working Papers 96-6, Bank of Canada.
    11. Paul R. Masson, 1999. "Multiple equilibria, contagion, and the emerging market crises," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
    12. Zigrand, Jean-Pierre, 2014. "Systems and systemic risk in finance and economics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 61220, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Bertrand Candelon & Mr. Amadou N Sy & Mr. Rabah Arezki, 2011. "Sovereign Rating News and Financial Markets Spillovers: Evidence from the European Debt Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2011/068, International Monetary Fund.
    14. repec:bla:scandj:v:98:y:1996:i:4:p:463-84 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1995. "Contagious speculative attacks," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 45-63, March.
    16. J. Doyne Farmer & Duncan Foley, 2009. "The economy needs agent-based modelling," Nature, Nature, vol. 460(7256), pages 685-686, August.
    17. Constantin Mellios & Eric Paget-Blanc, 2006. "Which factors determine sovereign credit ratings?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 361-377.
    18. Gai, Prasanna & Haldane, Andrew & Kapadia, Sujit, 2011. "Complexity, concentration and contagion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 453-470.
    19. Antonio Afonso, 2003. "Understanding the determinants of sovereign debt ratings: Evidence for the two leading agencies," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 27(1), pages 56-74, March.
    20. Nikolaos Demiris & Theodore Kypraios & L. Vanessa Smith, 2014. "On the epidemic of financial crises," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 177(3), pages 697-723, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Laleh Tafakori & Armin Pourkhanali & Riccardo Rastelli, 2022. "Measuring systemic risk and contagion in the European financial network," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 345-389, July.
    2. Paolo Giudici & Laura Parisi, 2018. "CoRisk: Credit Risk Contagion with Correlation Network Models," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-19, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Komulainen, Tuomas, 2001. "Currency crises in emerging markets: Capital flows and herding behaviour," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2001, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    2. Pavel Trunin & M. Kamenskih, 2007. "Monitoring Financial Stability In Developing Economies (Case of Russia)," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 111.
    3. Lizarazo, Sandra Valentina, 2013. "Default risk and risk averse international investors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 317-330.
    4. Heng Chen & Wing Suen, 2016. "Falling Dominoes: A Theory of Rare Events and Crisis Contagion," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 228-255, February.
    5. Aikman, David & Beale, Daniel & Brinley-Codd, Adam & Covi, Giovanni & Hüser, Anne‑Caroline & Lepore, Caterina, 2023. "Macroprudential stress‑test models: a survey," Bank of England working papers 1037, Bank of England.
    6. Radovan Vadovic, 2009. "Early, Late, and Multiple Bidding in Internet Auctions," Working Papers 0904, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
    7. Chau Le & Dickinson David, 2014. "Asset price volatility and financial contagion: analysis using the MS-VAR framework," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 4(2), pages 133-162, December.
    8. Aldasoro, Iñaki & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Faia, Ester, 2017. "Bank networks: Contagion, systemic risk and prudential policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 164-188.
    9. Mohammad Karimi & Marcel‐Cristian Voia, 2019. "Empirics of currency crises: A duration analysis approach," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 428-449, July.
    10. Komulainen, Tuomas, 2001. "Currency crises in emerging markets : Capital flows and herding behaviour," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    11. Ahec Šonje, Amina & Babić, Ante, 2002. "Measuring and predicting currency disturbances in Croatia: the “signals” approach," MPRA Paper 83137, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2002.
    12. Gus, Garita & Chen, Zhou, 2011. "Averting Currency Crises: The Pros and Cons of Financial Openness," MPRA Paper 30218, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar & Mr. Giorgio Fazio & Mr. Ronald MacDonald, 2003. "Fatal Attraction: A New Measure of Contagion," IMF Working Papers 2003/080, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Antonio Cabrales & Piero Gottardi & Fernando Vega-Redondo, 2017. "Risk Sharing and Contagion in Networks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(9), pages 3086-3127.
    15. Todd Keister, 2009. "Expectations And Contagion In Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 991-1012, August.
    16. Li, Bingqing & Zhang, Xiaoyuan, 2024. "Systemic risk and financial networks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 25-36.
    17. Ms. Sweta Chaman Saxena & Ms. Valerie Cerra, 2000. "Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia: A Case Study in the Asian Currency Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2000/060, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Alan Morrison & Michalis Vasios & Mungo Wilson & Filip Zikes, 2017. "Identifying Contagion in a Banking Network," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-082, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Blasques, Francisco & Bräuning, Falk & Lelyveld, Iman van, 2018. "A dynamic network model of the unsecured interbank lending market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 310-342.
    20. Ari, Ali, 2008. "An Early Warning Signals Approach for Currency Crises: The Turkish Case," MPRA Paper 25858, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial networks; systemic risk; contagion; multi-stage disease;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:60954. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: LSERO Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.