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Nowcasting Mexico’s short-term GDP growth in real-time: a factor model versus professional forecasters

Author

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  • Delajara, Marcelo
  • Álvarez, Federico Hernández
  • Tirado, Abel Rodríguez

Abstract

We introduce a novel real-time database for the Mexican economy and propose a small-scale mixed-frequency dynamic factor model for nowcasting Mexico’s short-term GDP growth in real-time. We compare our factor-based backcasts, nowcasts, and forecasts with those of the consensus of the survey of professional forecasters during the period from the second quarter of 2008 through the second quarter of 2014. Our results suggest that our factor-based backcasts, nowcasts, and forecasts outperform those of the consensus of professional forecasters in real-time comparisons despite some structural instability during the 2008–09 crisis and its aftermath in 2010.

Suggested Citation

  • Delajara, Marcelo & Álvarez, Federico Hernández & Tirado, Abel Rodríguez, 2016. "Nowcasting Mexico’s short-term GDP growth in real-time: a factor model versus professional forecasters," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123297, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:123297
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    factor model; Mexico; nowcasting; real-time; short-term GDP growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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