IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ehl/lserod/118545.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How genuine are sub-replacement ideal family sizes in urban China?

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Shuang
  • Gietel-Basten, Stuart

Abstract

Ideal family sizes remain at or above two in most low-fertility settings, but sub-replacement fertility ideals have been reported for urban China. The presence of restrictive family planning policies has led to a debate as to whether such ideals are genuine. This study exploits the ending of the one-child policy and the beginning of a universal two-child policy in October 2015 to investigate whether relaxing the restrictions led to an increase in ideal family size. We apply difference-in-differences and individual-level fixed-effect models to longitudinal data from a near-nationwide survey. For married individuals aged 20–39, relaxing the restrictions from one to two children increased the mean ideal family size by around 0.2 and the proportion who desired two or more children by around 19 percentage points. Findings suggest that although reported ideal family sizes have been reduced by policy restrictions, sub-replacement ideal family sizes in urban China appear to be genuine.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Shuang & Gietel-Basten, Stuart, 2023. "How genuine are sub-replacement ideal family sizes in urban China?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118545, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:118545
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/118545/
    File Function: Open access version.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:cai:poeine:pope_1103_0519 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Wolfgang Lutz, 2007. "Adaptation versus mitigation policies on demographic change in Europe," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 5(1), pages 19-25.
    3. M. Merli & Herbert Smith, 2002. "Has the Chinese family planning policy been successful in changing fertility preferences?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 39(3), pages 557-572, August.
    4. Maria Rita Testa & Vegard Skirbekk & Wolfgang Lutz, 2006. "The Low Fertility Trap Hypothesis. Forces that May Lead to Further Postponement and Fewer Births in Europe," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 4(1), pages 167-192.
    5. Judith Blake, 1966. "Ideal family size among white Americans: A quarter of a century’s evidence," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 3(1), pages 154-173, March.
    6. Maria Iacovou & Lara Patrício Tavares, 2011. "Yearning, Learning, and Conceding: Reasons Men and Women Change Their Childbearing Intentions," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 37(1), pages 89-123, March.
    7. Stuart Basten & Quanbao Jiang, 2015. "Fertility in China: An uncertain future," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 69(sup1), pages 97-105, April.
    8. Kateryna Savelieva & Natalie Nitsche & Venla Berg & Anneli Miettinen & Anna Rotkirch & Markus Jokela, 2021. "Birth cohort changes in fertility ideals: evidence from repeated cross-sectional surveys in Finland," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2021-010, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    9. Dimiter Philipov, 2009. "Fertility Intentions and Outcomes: The Role of Policies to Close the Gap [Intentions de fécondité et fécondité observée: Rôle des politiques publiques dans la réduction du décalage]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 355-361, November.
    10. Royston, Patrick & White, Ian R., 2011. "Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE): Implementation in Stata," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 45(i04).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shuang Chen, 2022. "The Positive Effect of Women’s Education on Fertility in Low-Fertility China," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(1), pages 125-161, March.
    2. Eva Beaujouan & Caroline Berghammer, 2019. "The Gap Between Lifetime Fertility Intentions and Completed Fertility in Europe and the United States: A Cohort Approach," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 38(4), pages 507-535, August.
    3. Tomáš Sobotka & Éva Beaujouan, 2014. "Two Is Best? The Persistence of a Two-Child Family Ideal in Europe," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 40(3), pages 391-419, September.
    4. Nicoletta Balbo & Francesco C. Billari & Melinda Mills, 2013. "Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 1-38, February.
    5. Gerda Neyer & Trude Lappegård & Daniele Vignoli, 2013. "Gender Equality and Fertility: Which Equality Matters?," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 245-272, August.
    6. Alison Gemmill, 2019. "From Some to None? Fertility Expectation Dynamics of Permanently Childless Women," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(1), pages 129-149, February.
    7. Kuhnt, Anne-Kristin & Buhr, Petra, 2016. "Biographical risks and their impact on uncertainty in fertility expectations: A gender-specific study based on the German Family Panel," Duisburger Beiträge zur soziologischen Forschung 2016-03, University of Duisburg-Essen, Institute of Sociology.
    8. Mengni Chen & Paul S. F. Yip, 2017. "The Discrepancy Between Ideal and Actual Parity in Hong Kong: Fertility Desire, Intention, and Behavior," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 36(4), pages 583-605, August.
    9. Olivier Thevenon, 2009. "Does fertility respond to work and family reconciliation policies in France?," Working Papers hal-00424832, HAL.
    10. Yongkun Yin, 2022. "Intergenerational Transmission of Fertility: Evidence from China’s Population Control Policies," Working Papers wp2022_2211, CEMFI.
    11. Wolfgang Lutz, 2020. "Fertility will be determined by the changing ideal family size and the empowerment to reach these targets," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 18(1), pages 63-70.
    12. Anne-Kristin Kuhnt & Heike Trappe, 2013. "Easier said than done: childbearing intentions and their realization in a short term perspective," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2013-018, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    13. Peter Huber & Peter Mayerhofer & Stefan Schönfelder & Oliver Fritz & Andrea Kunnert & Dieter Pennerstorfer, 2010. "Teilbericht 5: Zusammenfassung und Handlungsempfehlungen," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 41130.
    14. Wolfgang Lutz, 2017. "Education empowers women to reach their personal fertility target, regardless of what the target is," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 15(1), pages 027-31.
    15. Faragó, Miklós, 2011. "Paritásfüggő összetett termékenységi mutatók Magyarországon és különbségeik dekompozíciója [Parity-dependent complex indicators of fertility in Hungary and decomposition of differences between them," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 970-993.
    16. Rouse, Heather L. & Choi, Ji Young & Riser, Quentin H. & Beecher, Constance C., 2020. "Multiple risks, multiple systems, and academic achievement: A nationally representative birth-to-five investigation," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    17. Elena Ellmeier & Melanie Koch & Thomas Scheiber, 2023. "Saving behavior along the income distribution during the COVID-19 pandemic," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1/23, pages 7-21.
    18. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2018. "Fertility and savings contractions in China: Long‐run global implications," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(11), pages 3194-3220, November.
    19. Lolagene Coombs, 1979. "Reproductive goals and achieved fertility: A fifteen-year perspective," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 16(4), pages 523-534, November.
    20. John Knodel & Visid Prachuabmoh, 1973. "Desired family size in Thailand: Are the responses meaningful?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 10(4), pages 619-637, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asia; China; family planning; fertility; fertility desire; fertility preferences; ideal family size; low fertility; one-child policy; population;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:118545. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: LSERO Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.