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The impact of U.S. free trade agreements on calorie availability and obesity: a natural experiment in Canada

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  • Barlow, Pepita
  • McKee, Martin
  • Stuckler, David

Abstract

Introduction Globalization via free trade and investment agreements is often implicated in the obesity pandemic. Concerns center on how free trade and investment agreements increase population exposure to unhealthy, high-calorie diets, but existing studies preclude causal conclusions. Few studies of free trade and investment agreements and diets isolated their impact from confounding changes, and none examined any effect on caloric intake, despite its critical role in the etiology of obesity. This study addresses these limitations by analyzing a unique natural experiment arising from the exceptional circumstances surrounding the implementation of the 1989 Canada–U.S. Free Trade Agreement. Methods Data from the UN (2017) were analyzed using fixed-effects regression models and the synthetic control method to estimate the impact of the Canada–U.S. Free Trade Agreement on calorie availability in Canada, 1978–2006, and coinciding increases in U.S. exports and investment in Canada’s food and beverage sector. The impact of changes to calorie availability on body weights was then modeled. Results Calorie availability increased by ≅170 kilocalories per capita per day in Canada after the Canada–U.S. Free Trade Agreement. There was a coinciding rise in U.S. trade and investment in the Canadian food and beverage sector. This rise in calorie availability is estimated to account for an average weight gain of between 1.8 kg and 12.2 kg in the Canadian population, depending on sex and physical activity levels. Conclusions The Canada–U.S. Free Trade Agreement was associated with a substantial rise in calorie availability in Canada. U.S. free trade and investment agreements can contribute to rising obesity and related diseases by pushing up caloric intake.

Suggested Citation

  • Barlow, Pepita & McKee, Martin & Stuckler, David, 2018. "The impact of U.S. free trade agreements on calorie availability and obesity: a natural experiment in Canada," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102667, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:102667
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/102667/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
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    3. Crafts,Nicholas & Toniolo,Gianni (ed.), 1996. "Economic Growth in Europe since 1945," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521499644, October.
    4. Mendez Lopez, Ana & Loopstra, Rachel & McKee, Martin & Stuckler, David, 2017. "Is trade liberalisation a vector for the spread of sugar-sweetened beverages? A cross-national longitudinal analysis of 44 low- and middle-income countries," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 21-27.
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    Cited by:

    1. Piriu, Andreea Alexandra, 2021. "Trade Shocks, Job Insecurity and Individual Health," GLO Discussion Paper Series 992, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    2. Giuntella, Osea & Rieger, Matthias & Rotunno, Lorenzo, 2020. "Weight gains from trade in foods: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    3. Barlow, Pepita, 2018. "Does trade liberalization reduce child mortality in low- and middle-income countries? A synthetic control analysis of 36 policy experiments, 1963-2005," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102664, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Barlow, Pepita & Sanap, Rujuta & Garde, Amandine & Winters, L. Alan & Mabhala, Mzwandile A. & Thow, Anne Marie, 2022. "Reassessing the health impacts of trade and investment agreements: a systematic review of quantitative studies, 2016–20," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113791, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Hoffmann, Farina & Koellner, Thomas & Kastner, Thomas, 2021. "The micronutrient content of the European Union's agricultural trade," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    6. Barlow, Pepita, 2018. "Does trade liberalization reduce child mortality in low- and middle-income countries? A synthetic control analysis of 36 policy experiments, 1963-2005," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 107-115.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Canada-U.S. free trade agreement; calorie intake; free trade agreements;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J50 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - General

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