IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/egc/wpaper/982.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Structural Change in Transition Economies: Does Foreign Aid Matter?

Author

Listed:
  • Mohsen Fardmanesh

    (Temple University)

  • Li Tan

    (American International Group)

Abstract

This paper addresses whether the initial declines in the manufacturing and real wages in transition economies were anything unexpected to justify policy reversal, and whether the “often-recommended” foreign aid would have helped them curb these declines in any significant way. It answers these questions with the help of a two-sector three-factor small open economy model and simulation exercises. It concludes that, given the relative price distortions and the market disequilibria that transition economies inherited from their planning era, the initial declines in their manufacturing and real wages are to be mostly expected. Foreign aid, whose impact is noticeable only when it is in excess of 5% of GDP, does not curb the decline in their real wages in any measurable way and exacerbates the decline in their manufacturing by a few percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohsen Fardmanesh & Li Tan, 2009. "Structural Change in Transition Economies: Does Foreign Aid Matter?," Working Papers 982, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
    • Handle: RePEc:egc:wpaper:982
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econ.yale.edu/growth_pdf/cdp982.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Weitzman, Martin L, 1970. "Soviet Postwar Economic Growth and Capital-Labor Substitution," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(4), pages 676-692, September.
    2. Fardmanesh, Mohsen & Tan, Li, 2003. "Wage and price control policies in transition economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 173-200, February.
    3. Michael Bruno & Jeffrey Sachs, 1982. "Input Price Shocks and the Slowdown in Economic Growth: The Case of U.K. Manufacturing," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 49(5), pages 679-705.
    4. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-848, December.
    5. Morris Goldstein & Lawrence H. Officer, 1979. "New Measures Of Prices And Productivity For Tradable And Nontradable Goods," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 25(4), pages 413-427, December.
    6. Jac C. Heckelman & Stephen Knack, 2008. "Foreign Aid and Market‐Liberalizing Reform," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 75(299), pages 524-548, August.
    7. Berndt, Ernst R & Wood, David O, 1975. "Technology, Prices, and the Derived Demand for Energy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 57(3), pages 259-268, August.
    8. Calvo, Guillermo A & Coricelli, Fabrizio, 1992. "Stagflationary Effects of Stabilization Programs in Reforming Socialist Countries: Enterprise-Side and Household-Side Factors," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 6(1), pages 71-90, January.
    9. Michael Bruno & Jeffrey Sachs, 1982. "Input Price Shocks and the Slowdown in Economic Growth: The Case of U.K.Manufacturing," NBER Working Papers 0851, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Stanley Fischer, 1991. "Economic Reform in the USS and the Role of Aid," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 289-302.
    11. Commander, Simon, 1992. "Inflation and the Transition to a Market Economy: An Overview," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 6(1), pages 3-12, January.
    12. Cungu, Azeta & Swinnen, Johan F.M., 2003. "The Impact Of Aid On Economic Growth In Transition Economies: An Empirical Study," PRG Working Papers 31890, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance.
    13. repec:bla:revinw:v:25:y:1979:i:4:p:413-27 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:lic:licosd:12803 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. How not to model transition economies
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2010-02-22 21:21:00

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fardmanesh, Mohsen & Tan, Li, 2009. "Structural Change in Transition Economies: Does Foreign Aid Matter?," Center Discussion Papers 56754, Yale University, Economic Growth Center.
    2. Fardmanesh, Mohsen & Tan, Li, 1996. "Wage and Price Control Policies in Socialist Transitional Economies," Center Discussion Papers 28515, Yale University, Economic Growth Center.
    3. Ksenia Gonchar & Philipp Marek, 2013. "Natural-resource or market-seeking FDI in Russia? An empirical study of locational factors affecting the regional distribution of FDI entries," HSE Working papers WP BRP 26/EC/2013, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    4. repec:bny:wpaper:0062 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Bodenstein, Martin & Erceg, Christopher J. & Guerrieri, Luca, 2011. "Oil shocks and external adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 168-184, March.
    6. Conny Olovsson, 2019. "Oil prices in a general equilibrium model with precautionary demand for oil," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 1-17, April.
    7. Sugra Ingilab Humbatova & Natig Qadim-Oglu Hajiyev, 2019. "Oil Factor in Economic Development," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-40, April.
    8. Gars, Johan & Olovsson, Conny, 2017. "International business cycles: quantifying the effects of a world market for oil," Working Paper Series 340, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    9. Springer, K.A., 1989. "Disequilibrium theory in the open economy and the unemployment problem : a survey," Serie Research Memoranda 0089, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    10. Fardmanesh, Mohsen & Tan, Li, 2003. "Wage and price control policies in transition economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 173-200, February.
    11. Olovsson, Conny, 2016. "Oil prices in a real-businesscycle model with precautionary demand for oil," Working Paper Series 332, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    12. Afees A. Salisu & Umar B. Ndako & Idris Adediran, 2018. "Forecasting GDP of OPEC: The role of oil price," Working Papers 044, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    13. Pham T. T. Trinh & Bui T. T. My, 2023. "The impact of world oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables in Vietnam: the transmission through domestic oil price," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 37(1), pages 67-87, May.
    14. Lutz Kilian, 2010. "Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    15. Awerbuch, Shimon & Sauter, Raphael, 2006. "Exploiting the oil-GDP effect to support renewables deployment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 2805-2819, November.
    16. Bai, Y. & Zhou, D.Q. & Zhou, P., 2012. "Modelling and analysis of oil import tariff and stockpile policies for coping with supply disruptions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 84-90.
    17. Milas Costas & Legrenzi Gabriella, 2006. "Non-linear Real Exchange Rate Effects in the UK Labour Market," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-34, March.
    18. Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Gechert, Sebastian & Kolcunova, Dominika, 2019. "Death to the Cobb-Douglas Production Function? A Meta-Analysis of the Capital-Labor Substitution Elasticity," MetaArXiv 6um5g, Center for Open Science.
    19. Sebastian Gechert & Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Dominika Kolcunova, 2022. "Measuring Capital-Labor Substitution: The Importance of Method Choices and Publication Bias," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 55-82, July.
    20. Rachel Ann Mulhall & John R. Bryson, 2013. "The Energy Hot Potato and Governance of Value Chains: Power, Risk, and Organizational Adjustment in Intermediate Manufacturing Firms," Economic Geography, Clark University, vol. 89(4), pages 395-419, October.
    21. Roy, Arup, 2023. "Nexus between economic growth, external debt, oil price, and remittances in India: New insight from novel DARDL simulations," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    liberalization; structural adjustment; transition economies; East European economies; Soviet Republics; foreign aid;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • P2 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. Economic Logic blog

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:egc:wpaper:982. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Benjamin King (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/egyalus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.