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Ciclos económicos y multiplicadores del gasto en Estados Unidos y México 1950-2003

Author

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  • Guerrero, Carlos

    (Tecnológico de Monterrey, Campus Ciudad de México)

Abstract

Utilizando como marco de referencia el modelo de oferta y demanda agregadas, el documento identifica a los ciclos económicos y determina los multiplicadores del gasto en Estados Unidos y México entre los años de 1950 y 2003. El estudio aplica intensivamente herramientas cuantitativas –filtro de Hodrick-Prescott, análisis espectral, procedimiento de Johansen y filtro de Kalman. Los ciclos económicos en ambos países son asimétricos por su duración y volatilidad, y durante el periodo TLCAN aparece una relativa sincronización. El multiplicador del gasto de largo plazo en nuestro país es mayor al estadounidense –lo cual explica, en algún sentido, la superior volatilidad macroeconómica mexicana–, y en los últimos lustros el primero acusa una significativa reducción como consecuencia parcial del funcionamiento del modelo de desarrollo vigente.

Suggested Citation

  • Guerrero, Carlos, 2010. "Ciclos económicos y multiplicadores del gasto en Estados Unidos y México 1950-2003," EGAP Working Papers 2010-03, Tecnológico de Monterrey, Campus Ciudad de México.
    • Handle: RePEc:ega:docume:201003
    as

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    File URL: http://alejandria.ccm.itesm.mx/egap/documentos/EGAP-2010-03.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    sector TIC; crecimiento económico; metodología hedónica;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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