IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eer/wpalle/11-07e.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Real Estate Conundrum in the CEE Office Markets: Thinking Too Big?

Author

Listed:
  • Laurin Frederic

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the evolution of office market risks and property prices in Central and Eastern European (CEE) cities. We developed a methodology assessing if office property markets have been accurately valuated in CEE cities, using as a benchmark the past evolution of office markets in Western European cities. Using regression methods applied on Western European data, we are able to estimate a predicted property price and capitalization rate for each CEE cites, given their respective actual real estate and economic conditions. Results show that investors’ valuations are in fact not too far apart from the predicted value based only on real estate and economic fundamentals. We also find that the macroeconomic environment and the general risk assessment seem to have a stronger effect on property prices in CEE than in Western European cities.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurin Frederic, 2011. "The Real Estate Conundrum in the CEE Office Markets: Thinking Too Big?," EERC Working Paper Series 11/07e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    • Handle: RePEc:eer:wpalle:11/07e
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://eercnetwork.com/default/download/creater/working_papers/file/e540676133bbb26350c6001b732696da7d9afec7.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Henry Wai-Chung Yeung, 1998. "Transnational Economic Synergy and Business Networks: The Case of Two-way Investment Between Malaysia and Singapore," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 687-706.
    2. Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2004. "Sovereign risk premia in the European government bond market," ZEI Working Papers B 26-2003, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    3. Stanley McGreal & Ali Parsa & Ramin Keivani, 2000. "Globalisation And The Development Of Real Estate Markets In Central Europe," ERES eres2000_081, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    4. William C. Wheaton & Raymond G. Torto, 1988. "Vacancy Rates and the Future of Office Rents," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 430-436, December.
    5. William C. Wheaton & Gleb Nechayev, 2008. "The 1998 ?2005 Housing "Bubble" and the Current "Correction": What’s Different This Time?," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 30(1), pages 1-26.
    6. Stanley McGreal & Ali Parsa & Ramin Keivani, 2002. "Evolution of property investment markets in Central Europe: opportunities and constraints," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 213-230.
    7. Christian Hott & Pierre Monnin, 2008. "Fundamental Real Estate Prices: An Empirical Estimation with International Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 427-450, May.
    8. Glenn R. Mueller, 1999. "Real Estate Rental Growth Rates at Different Points in the Physical Market Cycle," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 131-150.
    9. Chan, Hing Lin & Lee, Shu Kam & Woo, Kai Yin, 2001. "Detecting rational bubbles in the residential housing markets of Hong Kong," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 61-73, January.
    10. von Hagen, Jurgen & Schuknecht, Ludger & Bernoth, Kerstin, 2004. "Sovereign Risk Premia in the European Bond Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 4465, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Roche, Maurice J., 2001. "The rise in house prices in Dublin: bubble, fad or just fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 281-295, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frederic Laurin & John-John D'Argensio & Thea Goginashvili, 2010. "The Real Estate Conundrum in the CEE Office Markets: Thinking Too Big?," Working Papers 10-001, International School of Economics at TSU, Tbilisi, Republic of Georgia.
    2. Rose N. Lai & Robert A. Van Order, 2010. "Momentum and House Price Growth in the United States: Anatomy of a Bubble," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(4), pages 753-773, Winter.
    3. Peppel-Srebrny, Jemima, 2021. "Not all government budget deficits are created equal: Evidence from advanced economies' sovereign bond markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    4. Faruk, Balli, 2006. "New Patterns in International Portfolio Allocation and Income Smoothing," MPRA Paper 10121, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Aug 2008.
    5. L. Marattin & P. Paesani & S. Salotti, 2011. "Fiscal shocks, public debt, and long-term interest rate dynamics," Working Papers wp740, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/9909 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Afonso, António & Arghyrou, Michael G. & Bagdatoglou, George & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2015. "On the time-varying relationship between EMU sovereign spreads and their determinants," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 363-371.
    8. Ejsing, Jacob & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2011. "The Janus-headed salvation: Sovereign and bank credit risk premia during 2008-2009," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 28-31, January.
    9. Lucjan T. Orlowski & Kirsten Lommatzsch, 2005. "Bond Yield Compression in the Countries Converging to the Euro," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp799, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    10. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2012. "The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 658-677.
    11. Van Hecke, Annelore, 2013. "Vertical debt spillovers in EMU countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 468-492.
    12. Dr Monique Ebell & Dr Angus Armstrong, 2013. "Scotland’s Currency Options," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 415, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    13. Salvador Barrios & Per Iversen & Magdalena Lewandowska & Ralph Setzer, 2009. "Determinants of intra-euro area government bond spreads during the financial crisis," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 388, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    14. Kirsten H. Heppke‐Falk & Guntram B. Wolff, 2008. "Moral Hazard and Bail‐Out in Fiscal Federations: Evidence for the German Länder," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 425-446, August.
    15. Hoffmann Andreas, 2013. "The Euro as a Proxy for the Classical Gold Standard? Government Debt Financing and Political Commitment in Historical Perspective," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 41-61, November.
    16. Simone Salotti & Carmine Trecroci, 2012. "Even worse than you thought: The effects of government debt on investment and productivity," EcoMod2012 4200, EcoMod.
    17. Vyprachticka, Terezie, 2011. "Could the Stability and Growth Pact be Substituted by the Financial Markets?," European Integration online Papers (EIoP), European Community Studies Association Austria (ECSA-A), vol. 15, September.
    18. Gunther Capelle-Blancard & Patricia Crifo & Marc-Arthur Diaye & Rim Oueghlissi & Bert Scholtens, 2016. "Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) performance and sovereign bond spreads: an empirical analysis of OECD countries," Working Papers hal-01401718, HAL.
    19. Rose Neng Lai & Robert Van Order, 2019. "Shadow Banking and the Property Market in China," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 22(3), pages 361-399.
    20. Sanjay Kumar Rout & Hrushikesh Mallick, 2022. "Sovereign Bond Market Shock Spillover Over Different Maturities: A Journey from Normal to Covid-19 Period," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 29(4), pages 697-734, December.
    21. Gómez-Puig, Marta, 2008. "Monetary integration and the cost of borrowing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 455-479, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eer:wpalle:11/07e. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anton Pashchenko (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.eercnetwork.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.