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Scotland’s Currency Options

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  • Dr Monique Ebell
  • Dr Angus Armstrong

Abstract

This paper considers which currency option would be best for an independent Scotland. We examine three currency options: being part of a sterling currency union, adopting the euro, or having an independent currency. No currency option is the best when considered against all criteria. Therefore, making the decision requires deciding which criteria are most important. Recent events around the world, particularly in Europe, have shown that fiscal sustainability and currency arrangements cannot be considered in isolation. Hence, the share of the existing UK public debt that an independent Scotland would inherit is central to understanding its currency choices. We consider how the debt may be divided, and the ability of an independent Scotland to pay its share. For an independent Scotland to prosper it requires a 'hard' currency, one in which investors are willing to hold long-dated Scottish government debt at a reasonable price. A necessary condition for a 'hard' currency is that government solvency is always beyond doubt.

Suggested Citation

  • Dr Monique Ebell & Dr Angus Armstrong, 2013. "Scotland’s Currency Options," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 415, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrd:415
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Angus Armstrong, 2012. "Scotland's Currency and Fiscal Choices," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 219(1), pages 4-9, January.
    2. Angus Armstrong & Monique Ebell, 2013. "Scotland’s Currency Options," Discussion Papers 1302, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    3. Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2004. "Sovereign risk premia in the European government bond market," ZEI Working Papers B 26-2003, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    4. Olivier J. Blanchard & Daniel Leigh, 2013. "Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 117-120, May.
    5. von Hagen, Jurgen & Schuknecht, Ludger & Bernoth, Kerstin, 2004. "Sovereign Risk Premia in the European Bond Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 4465, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:

    1. Angus Armstrong & Monique Ebell, 2014. "Assets and liabilities and Scottish independence," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 30(2), pages 297-309.
    2. Angus Armstrong & Monique Ebell, 2013. "Scotland’s Currency Options," Discussion Papers 1302, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    3. Angus Armstrong & Monique Ebell, 2014. "Assets and liabilities and Scottish independence," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 30(2), pages 297-309.
    4. Angus Armstrong & Monique Ebell, 2013. "Scotland’s Currency Options," Discussion Papers 1302, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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