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Rogoff Revisited: The Conservative Central Banker Proposition Under Active Fiscal Policies

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  • Andrew Hughes Hallett
  • Jan Libich
  • Petr Stehlik

Abstract

This paper generalizes and qualifies an influential monetary policy result due to Rogoff (1985) by taking fiscal policy, and fiscal-monetary interactions, into account. It shows that an appointment of a conservative central banker may, under a range of circumstances, (i) increase the average level of inflation; or (ii) decrease this level too much, producing deflation; and/or (iii) reverse the direction of the monetary response to shocks (from tightening to easing and vice versa). We show the conditions under which this can happen.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Hughes Hallett & Jan Libich & Petr Stehlik, 2007. "Rogoff Revisited: The Conservative Central Banker Proposition Under Active Fiscal Policies," CAMA Working Papers 2007-20, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2007-20
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    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2021-06/20_hallett_libich_stehlik_2007.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lohmann, Susanne, 1992. "Optimal Commitment in Monetary Policy: Credibility versus Flexibility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 273-286, March.
    2. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
    3. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1984. "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Brian Griffiths & Geoffrey E. Wood (ed.), Monetarism in the United Kingdom, pages 15-41, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Jan Libich, 2007. "Fiscal-monetary Interactions: The Effect of Fiscal Restraint and Public Monitoring on Central Bank Credibility," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(5), pages 559-576, November.
    5. Avinash Dixit & Luisa Lambertini, 2003. "Interactions of Commitment and Discretion in Monetary and Fiscal Policies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1522-1542, December.
    6. Backus, David & Driffill, John, 1985. "Inflation and Reputation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 530-538, June.
    7. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Jan Libich & Petr Stehlík, 2011. "Welfare Improving Coordination of Fiscal and Monetary Policy," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 007-026, March.
    8. Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Libich, Jan & Stehlík, Petr, 2007. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interaction with Various Degrees and Types of Commitment," CEPR Discussion Papers 6586, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Kenneth Rogoff, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-1189.
    10. Hans Gersbach, 2003. "On the negative social value of central banks' knowledge transparency," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 91-102, August.
    11. Walsh, Carl E, 1995. "Optimal Contracts for Central Bankers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 150-167, March.
    12. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Jan Libich & Petr Stehlík, 2011. "Welfare Improving Coordination of Fiscal and Monetary Policy," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 007-026, March.
    2. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Jan Libich & Petr Stehlík, 2011. "Macroprudential Policies and Financial Stability," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(277), pages 318-334, June.
    3. Pasquale Foresti, 2018. "Monetary And Fiscal Policies Interaction In Monetary Unions," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 226-248, February.
    4. Andrew P. Blake & Tatiana Kirsanova, 2011. "Inflation Conservatism and Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(2), pages 41-83, June.
    5. Roger Alejandro Banegas Rivero & Marco Alberto Nunez Ramirez & Sacnicte Valdez Del Rio, 2021. "Interaction of Economic Policy. Lessons on Social Welfare and Risk Premium," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 17(1), pages 7-29.
    6. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2012. "Restoring the conservative central banker proposition under monetary-fiscal interaction," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 448-451.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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