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Enhancing the Preparedness and Readiness

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  • d'Artis Kancs

Abstract

To enhance the situational awareness of strategic readiness in Europe we look through two complementary angles. First, through a situational assessment of selected strategic readiness elements that have often been overlooked in Europe. Leveraging the newly augmented strategic readiness framework of the US DoD, we examine the defence industrial readiness for a protracted conflict and war, force mobility, and a sustained whole-of-society resilience. Second, through a scenario analysis in order to future-proof the strategic decision maker options to be resilient to changing boundary conditions. We stress test Europe's readiness in view of possible future systemic shocks across threat and time horizons by simulating selected scenarios of the NATO's Strategic Foresight Analysis 2023 and Future Operating Environment 2024 and evaluate potential impacts in the EU-EMS model. Situational assessment reveals that the defence industrial mobilisation, force mobility and sustained resilience readiness are off-track in view of the European Defence Readiness – as a steady state of preparedness. Second, by quantifying potential costs of unpreparedness, the Cold War 2.0 scenario analysis provides a rationale for European allies to embark on a gradual de-risking trajectory rather than waiting for a much more costly abrupt shock trigger dictated by geopolitical events.

Suggested Citation

  • d'Artis Kancs, 2024. "Enhancing the Preparedness and Readiness," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 2024/08, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    • Handle: RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2024_08
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    File URL: http://www.eeri.eu/documents/wp/EERI_RP_2024_08.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Baqaee, David & Hinz, Julian & Moll, Benjamin & Schularick, Moritz & Teti, Feodora A. & Wanner, Joschka & Yang, Sihwan, 2024. "What if? The effects of a hard decoupling from China on the German economy," Kiel Policy Brief 170, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. d'Artis Kancs, 2024. "Uncertainty of supply chains: Risk and ambiguity," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(5), pages 2009-2033, May.
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    1. d'Artis Kancs, 2024. "European Defence Readiness: A Cold War 2.0 scenario analysis," Papers 2501.00058, arXiv.org.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Preparedness; readiness; Europe; Cold War 2.0; CRINK;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • H57 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Procurement
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms

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