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European Defence Readiness: A Cold War 2.0 scenario analysis

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  • d'Artis Kancs

Abstract

We stress-test the European Defence Readiness in a Cold War 2.0 scenario analysis. Leveraging a general equilibrium multi-sector approach to the global economy, we simulate an abrupt decoupling from CRINK and evaluate impacts on defence readiness under changed future boundary conditions. Our results suggest that the defence industrial mobilisation, force mobility and sustained resilience readiness are largely off-track in view of the European Defence Readiness - defined as a steady state of preparedness. By quantifying the cost of unpreparedness, our results provide a measurable rationale for European allies to embark on a gradual de-risking trajectory rather than waiting for a much more costly abrupt shock trigger dictated by geopolitical events.

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  • d'Artis Kancs, 2024. "European Defence Readiness: A Cold War 2.0 scenario analysis," Papers 2501.00058, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2501.00058
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    1. d'Artis Kancs, 2024. "Uncertainty of supply chains: Risk and ambiguity," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(5), pages 2009-2033, May.
    2. Baqaee, David & Hinz, Julian & Moll, Benjamin & Schularick, Moritz & Teti, Feodora A. & Wanner, Joschka & Yang, Sihwan, 2024. "What if? The effects of a hard decoupling from China on the German economy," Kiel Policy Brief 170, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
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