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The relationship between central bank transparency and the quality of inflation forecasts: is it U-shaped?

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  • Emna Trabelsi

Abstract

A recent theoretical literature highlighted the potential dangers of further increasing information disclosure by central banks. This paper gives a continuous empirical investigation of the existence of an optimal degree of transparency in the lines of van der Cruijsen et al. We test a quadratic relationship between central bank transparency and the inflation persistence by introducing some technical and economic modifications. Particularly, we used three new measures of transparency. An appropriate U shape test that was made through a Stata routine, recently developed by Lind and Mehlum, indicates a robust optimal intermediate degree of transparency, but its level is not. These results were obtained using a panel of 11 OECD central banks under the period 1999-2009. The estimations were run using a bias corrected LSDVC, a newly recent technique developed by Bruno for short dynamic panels with fixed effects, extended to accommodate unbalanced data.

Suggested Citation

  • Emna Trabelsi, 2012. "The relationship between central bank transparency and the quality of inflation forecasts: is it U-shaped?," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2012_02, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    • Handle: RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2012_02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Antonio Forte, 2010. "The European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England: Is the Taylor Rule a useful benchmark for the last decade?," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 53(2), pages 1-31.
    2. Daniel Kahneman, 2003. "Maps of Bounded Rationality: Psychology for Behavioral Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1449-1475, December.
    3. Petra M. Geraats, 2002. "Central Bank Transparency," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(483), pages 532-565, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Intermediate optimal transparency degree; inflation forecasts; inflation persistence; u-shaped relationship; non linear modeling; LSDVC; Principal Component Analysis.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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